Population trends can help to predict future challenges, Cordell Riley told Rotarians at their weekly meeting.

The statistician and social commentator alluded to a cultural climate in which many of the Island’s young men were eschewing further education.

He also suggested that the male learning style may differ from that of a female, meaning there is a need for a different approach from educators.

Noting the recent success of Bermuda College’s reaccreditation, he asked: “What can we do to meet the needs of students?”

“My topic has to do with the challenges that the Bermuda College faces as a result of the changing population trends, said Mr Riley, Mr Riley the institutional researcher and planning coordinator for the college, where he supplies independent data for decision making.

He cited the work of Canadian economist David Foot, who wrote the bestseller Boom, Bust & Echo, about how demographics can help us to understand the past and forecast the future.

“He said, if you understood population trends then you can pretty much explain two thirds of anything,” Mr Riley told the audience.

“I’ve been watching population trends for a number of years and I’ve come to agree that he is in fact correct.

“If we understand population trends, we can predict quite a bit.”

He explained that, for the first time, Bermuda was experiencing a declining population. The Island’s population will decline from 64,000 people in 2010 to a predicted 61,500 in 2020 — a 4 per cent decrease.

Mr Riley said “Of course, there’s going to be a major event in 2017, and that event has nothing to do with the America’s Cup.”

He was referring to the Island’s senior population, those 65 and older, which is expected to surpass the population of youth, those under 18.

It was previously predicted that this would happen in 2025, but has been accelerated to occur in 2017. This is because as age expectancy grows older, the birth rate continues to decrease.

“This has huge implications for the country,” Mr Riley said, adding that the benefit of a small population was that it made these trends more noticeable.

Using his data collection skills to look at trends within his own institution, he reported that the male population was underrepresented at the college. In Bermuda’s general population, there are more males than females — 53 per cent male and 47 per cent female — yet 65 per cent of the college’s students are female.

In 2008, the college offered free tuition and more females enrolled, while the number of males remained steady.

Mr Riley said: “Why did free tuition not affect males? I put this to an educator and they gave me a theory.”

He suggested the typical auditory teaching style, where students are dictated to by teachers, may not be suitable for all.

“If that is not the dominant style for males to learn, they’re going to struggle through school,” Mr Riley said.

“If they struggle through school, why would they then pay for two to four more years of what they had before?

“The challenges that we have are not unlike [those of] the country. The shrinking population, and for us a shrinking cohort of students that we would normally tap into.”

When asked about racial distribution within the college, he estimated that about 90 per cent of the student body was black.

George Cook, the former president of the Bermuda College said: “The challenge has always been to attract more students. The male-female issue was always there.

“It’s a cultural thing that’s of a profound nature. I don’t have the answer.”