BERMUDA is on alert after forecasters warned that Tropical Storm Florence is expected to strengthen into a hurricane before passing "very close" to the island.

Yesterday afternoon the tropical storm was 1,115 nautical miles southeast of Bermuda with winds of 45 knots and gusts up to 55 knots.

Bermuda Weather Service director Mark Guishard said the storm was expected to increase in intensity to a Grade 2 hurricane ? packing winds of up to 95 knots ? and pass within 225 nautical miles to the south by Sunday afternoon. A longer-range forecast puts Florence just 60 nautical miles west of Bermuda by Monday afternoon / evening.

Yesterday residents appeared to be heeding the warning, with hardware stores doing a roaring trade in emergency supplies such as generators, lanterns, candles and tarpaulins. Mr. Guishard added that longer range forecasts have a margin of error of up to 300 nautical miles ? and that means the hurricane could pass closer and strengthen even further by late Monday.

"The closest point of approach to Bermuda in the next 72 hours is 225 nautical miles to the south, and the five-day forecast does bring Florence very close to Bermuda as a Category 2 Hurricane," Mr. Guishard said.

"It should be noted that day-four and day-five forecasts can have track errors of up to 300 nautical miles. It should also be noted that intensity forecasting is very difficult, and there can be a large margin of error.

"Despite these uncertainties, the current large-scale weather patterns show no signs of anything moving into the area that would prevent this system from developing into a hurricane, or from changing the forecasted track drastically.

"It is still too early to tell exactly how close Florence will come to Bermuda. With that said, Bermuda should monitor this system very closely."

Mr. Guishard said that large swells from the system may affect the south shore, leading to dangerous surf conditions as early as Saturday afternoon.

And he pointed out that, even if Florence alters course and misses the island, the size of the weather system means that the weekend could be a washout.

"We can expect adverse conditions regardless of whether the centre comes very close to the island," Mr. Guishard said.

"It's fairly certain to say that we will get prolonged periods of tropical storm winds ? we can expect a very breezy day on Monday."

A visiting hurricane expert yesterday said it was unlikely Florence would score a direct hit on Bermuda.

Dr. Isaac Ginis, one of the world's leading experts on hurricane forecasting, who is in Bermuda for a conference, said: "The different computer models all seem to converge which usually means that the forecast will be accurate.

"However, at the moment it does not look well organised and that means it's more difficult to create proper conditions in the computer models.

"At the moment it looks as if Florence will pass west of Bermuda and it looks unlikely that we will get a direct hit. It all depends on how big the turn to the north will be."

Yesterday, a police spokesman said the situation was being monitored and there was a possibility that the Causeway could be closed.

And airport officials will also be meeting this morning to discuss the implementation of preparedness plans.

Acting Airport Operations manager Mike Osborn said: "At this early stage, as one would expect, all flights are scheduled as normal. Should anyone have concerns regarding their flight they should contact the airline directly.

"If deemed necessary, there will be a reminder to airport users that they may wish to relocate their vehicles from the long term car park."

A busy schedule of sporting fixtures is also expected to be wiped out by the rough weather.

Eddie Lindo, sales manager for Masters on Dundonald Street, said business had been brisk all day.

"It's been crazy since eight o'clock this morning, as soon as we opened the doors," he said.

"People have been buying up everything ? flashlights, lanterns, candles, ropes, tarpaulins, stoves, generators. We've just had a new shipment of generators come in ? that wasn't by accident but by design ? so I don't think there's any risk of us running out of stock.

"Obviously Fabian taught us a very big lesson and it looks like people have learned that lesson, which is good to see."

Gorham's assistant general manager Henry Durham also noted that residents were not leaving the purchase of emergency supplies until the last minute.

He said that, when Fabian hit three years ago, many residents did buy up essentials ? but only after the hurricane had passed.

"I would say in the last month or so we have had people preparing for this season, although that's definitely stepped up a notch in the last two days because of Florence," he said.

"But that's why we've had the influx of people coming in ? they don't want to leave it until it's too late. People are coming in and saying 'Hey, it's better to get things in now, nice and early, instead of on Monday morning'.

"People are buying batteries, flashlights ? this morning we had a good run on generators, in fact we're completely out of generators right now although we're expecting another delivery next weekend so we should be able to keep up with demand."

The US National Hurricane Centre and the Bermuda Weather Service will be updating advisories every six hours. Updates are available by logging onto www.weather.bm , by dialling the BWS tropical line on 9773, or by viewing the local weather information on CableVision channel 4 and WOW channel 101.