The 2015 Hurricane Season starts on Monday and, while forecasts suggest a quieter than average season, the Bermuda Weather Service is urging the public to stay on their toes.

Deputy director of the Bermuda Weather Service James Dodgson said that international organisations such as the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Colorado State University, Tropical Storm Risk and the UK Met Office are all predicting a below-average season in the North Atlantic region.

“This is due to two main reasons,” he explained. “The first is a developing El Nino weather phenomenon, which essentially creates more vertical wind shear in the main tropical development region (MDR) of the North Atlantic.

“This increased wind shear prevents weather disturbances from becoming better organised mature tropical weather features such as hurricanes — the vertical wind shear quite literally rips the developing disturbances apart before a mature development stage can be reached.

“The second reason for a predicted below average season is a cooler than average sea surface temperature anomaly that is prevalent in the MDR of the North Atlantic.

“Tropical storms and hurricanes feed off warm tropical waters that generally need to be 26.5C (80F) or higher. The heat trapped in the ocean is the fuel for tropical cyclone development.

“Therefore, if there is less heat, there is less fuel, hence less development.”

This season, NOAA is predicting between six and eleven named storms, three to six of which could reach hurricane strength. Of those, they expect no more than two will reach major hurricane status.

Despite the forecasts, Mr Dodgson said a slow season can still be destructive, noting the one-two punch of Hurricanes Fay and Gonzalo which struck the Island last fall.

“Last season was correctly forecast to be less active than average, however I don’t think anyone would say it was a quiet season for Bermuda,” he said.

“Whether the forecast is active or inactive, it only takes one tropical storm or hurricane to make it a busy season for Bermuda.

“I encourage the public to be equally prepared every year, and heed all the weather advice, including watches and warnings provided by the Bermuda Weather Service (BWS), Bermuda’s only official source of weather information. “The caveat to an El Nino-type season is that although we are less likely to see long track tropical cyclones affecting us due to reduced development in the MDR, we are more likely to see shorter track pop-up disturbances such as we did last year with Hurricane Fay. This is why the public must be equally prepared each season, right through the season, which officially runs through November 30.”

He said that when the BWS issues a Tropical Storm Watch, the public should keep regular tabs on the forecast and warnings for potential changes.

When a warning is issued, usually 36 hours before the event, the public should carry out their tropical storm/hurricane preparedness plan.

Mr Dodgson urged the public to keep an eye on the BWS Facebook page throughout the season, and ‘like’ it to receive a regular feed of frequent and candid weather updates.