Shares in cable TV should hold up well through the downturn
Q: Can my shares of Comcast Corp. continue to do well? — F.C., via the Internet
A: Cable is an industry that tends to hold up well in a difficult economy because consumers cutting back in other areas can't bear to disconnect or reduce their service.
Major operators reported solid business in their most recent quarter. Their subscription-based distribution is more predictable than business models funded by advertising.
In addition, Comcast and five other US cable operators recently signed an agreement with Sony Corp. to create digital televisions that can receive cable service without a set-top box. Cable operators contend this will help them offer many new services to compete against telephone and satellite companies.
But Comcast, the largest US cable-television operator, with 24 million television subscribers, continues to lose customers to satellite competitors. More important, however, is the fact that its 13 million Internet customers and 4.5 million telephone customers represent two vibrant growth businesses.
Bundling of services is paying off, making the diversified company one of the nation's largest Internet service providers. Video on demand represents another opportunity to offer profitable premium services.
Shares of Comcast (CMCSA) are up 22 percent this year, following last year's 35 percent drop. The company, which had $2.3 billion in free cash flow last year, has initiated a quarterly dividend. It is committed to buying back nearly $7 billion of its stock by the end of next year.
Although Comcast posted a 13-percent decline in first-quarter profit, that slide was attributed to large year-earlier gains from dissolving cable partnerships.
Comcast is offering faster Internet services in Minneapolis, with the goal of extending the next-generation system to all of its service areas by 2010. Comcast and two other cable firms have, however, pulled the plug on their cell phone venture with Sprint Nextel Corp.
Earnings are expected to increase 22 percent this year versus the 10 percent forecast for its peers. Next year's anticipated 24 percent rise compares with 18 percent expected industry-wide. The five-year annualised return projection of 13 percent equals the rate predicted for its peers.
This cable firm's largest markets are Philadelphia, Chicago, San Francisco, Seattle and Boston. Comcast is under investigation by the Federal Communications Commission for how it blocks what the firm deems excessive "file sharing," which is often used by subscribers to copy movies. The company says it is in the process of developing a clear "best practices" document to deal with all file sharers.
Q: What is your opinion of T. Rowe Price Global Stock Fund? — R.P., via the Internet
A: The world is portfolio manager Robert Gensler's oyster. He jets around it constantly to research potential opportunities.
Gensler has about one third of his holdings in the US and one fifth in the United Kingdom and Western Europe. He has reduced the number of stock names and increased portfolio turnover since taking charge three years ago.
He shrewdly sold off many of the fund's Japanese holdings and has been venturing into emerging-market and small-cap stocks.
The $1.19 billion T. Rowe Price Global Stock Fund (PRGSX) is up seven percent over the past 12 months to rank in the top six percent of world stock funds. Its three-year annualised return of 22 percent places it in the upper three percent of its peers.
"Performance has been fantastic; very strong since he came on board," said Bridget Hughes, analyst with Morningstar Inc. in Chicago. "While T. Rowe Price has been characterised by moderate growth, Gensler is more flexible and will buy higher-priced growth stocks if he thinks they're growing fast enough."
Gensler, who joined the firm as a telecommunications analyst in 1995, previously did an excellent job of running T. Rowe Price Media & Telecom Fund and T. Rowe Price Global Technology. He has more than $1 million invested in his current fund.
Telecom and financial services are the two largest concentrations. Besides the US, Brazil, Mexico and the United Kingdom represent significant holdings. Top stocks include Mexico's America Movil SAB de CV and Grupo Financiero Banorte SA de CV; Spain's Telefonica SA; France's Alcatel-Lucent SA; Brazil's Banco Itau Holding Financeira SA; and Russia's Gazprom SP. From the US, top holdings include Google Inc., American Tower Corp., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Juniper Networks Inc.
"When markets tank, this fund isn't going to be the best of the bunch," Hughes said. "However, I was pleasantly surprised to see how well it has done in downturns, considering its strength in up markets."
This "no-load" (no sales charge) fund requires a $2,500 minimum initial investment and has a low annual expense ratio of 0.87 percent. Fund company T. Rowe Price has not been disciplined by the Securities and Exchange Commission in the past decade.
Q: What exactly are penny stocks and is there an intelligent way to buy them? The price seems right. — A.D., via the Internet
A: They are speculative stocks of small firms that are not easy to trade because there are few shareholders.
So-called penny stocks trade at a low price, generally less than $5 and sometimes less than $1, and typically have a small market capitalisation. They are among the riskiest investments and are often pitched by Internet, fax or telephone.
"Penny stocks trade on the OTC Bulletin Board (OTCBB) or the Pink Sheets that don't require minimum standard requirements," said Paul Nolte, investment director with Hinsdale Associates in Hinsdale, Ill. "I don't ever recommend investing in penny stocks because there is a lack of available information about the companies, and the potential exists for these markets to be manipulated."
Though the National Association of Securities Dealers oversees the OTCBB, it is not a part of the Nasdaq stock market. Stocks on it should not be presented as Nasdaq-traded stocks, as some scam artists have done. Pink Sheets is a daily publication of the National Quotation Bureau, which has bid and ask prices of over-the-counter stocks. Firms that fail to meet minimum standards of larger exchanges and are delisted will often become listed on the OTCBB or Pink Sheets, Nolte said.
Andrew Leckey answers questions only through the column. Address inquiries to Andrew Leckey, P.O. Box 874702, Tempe, Arizona 85287-4702, or by e-mail at andrewinv@aol.com.