If international business was lured away from Bermuda the Island would struggle to survive on its other economic pillar ? tourism ? which has shrunken for most of the past two decades.

That is the result of research carried out by Bermuda College lecturer Shawn DeShields, who has presented his finding to an international conference in Paris and this week challenged an audience at the College to consider the issue and suggest solutions.

Speaking to he said that while there are signs of a strengthening in the tourism sector, it has a long way to go before it could successfully step in as the economy?s main driving engine.

In 1987 a staggering 631,314 visitors called on Bermuda,110,000 more than last year, with the Island?s population being swelled by 80,000 each month from May to August and the sector generated $542 million for the economy.

?That year there was an overcrowding issue and that?s when the cruise ship policy came into effect because the Government of that time found it necessary to increase capacity because of the overcrowding,? said Mr. DeShields.

That was a peak in the lifecycle of tourism on the Island, which has since been in decline. Bermuda has fortunately created a dynamic replacement by attracting international business to the Island.

But Mr. DeShields says the question the Island must address is how it would respond and recover should the volatile international business sector decline or suddenly move to another country.

He has paralleled the rise and fall of the Island?s two economic pillars and collated responses from more than 150 residents to see how they view the economic state of Bermuda.

It was in 1996 when international business took the ascendancy as Bermuda?s main revenue earner, creating $338 million compared to tourism?s $214 million, according to Government statistics used by Mr. DeShields.

The gap has increased since then. By 2004 tourism was responsible for $245 million of Bermuda?s Gross National Product compared with international business creating $926 million.

Could Bermuda survive a sudden shift away by the international business sector?

That?s the question Mr. DeShields posed to an audience at Bermuda College on Tuesday night.

?What I?m trying to do is draw a parallel between the lifecycle of the tourism industry in Bermuda, looking back at when tourism began and the growth period and decline period and its impact on GDP, jobs and foreign exchange revenue and what is doesn?t now do in terms of contributing to the GDP,? said Mr. DeShields.

He believes the international business sector lifecycle on the Island has now reached the ?mature? stage. How much longer it will remain is an unknown, but he feels there are dangers it could follow the fate of tourism and Bermuda should be prepared for such an outcome.

?International business, like tourism, has some of the same predators in terms of competition in terms of things that might make it leave the Island. I give the audience the parallel and say ?Look what happened to tourism and why it went into decline, and would it now be able to sustain Bermuda?s economy in the event that international business revenue declined?? he said.

?I also look at the effect on jobs and the social implications associated with the rapid growth of international business in terms of its impact on the cost of housing, impact on sustainable development and I go into how the international business sector, because it is growing at such a rate, is going to have a pull effect on other industries such as business services, real estate, education and construction.

?These other industries will grow in the next five or 10 years, consequently with the decline in tourism there has been a pull down effect on industries associated with it such as retail, electricity and gas, and manufacturing.?

Most of the 154 respondents to Mr. DeShields? survey agreed international business was primarily responsible for Bermuda?s strong economy and a large percentage agreed that tourism would not be able to sustain Bermuda?s economy.

He said: ?International business is the bedrock of our economy but it?s a volatile industry. One reason it could go is because of competition. There are other domiciles who have jumped on this international business bandwagon because of the significant profits associated with it.

?If we look back in history that?s exactly what happened with tourism.

?For years Bermuda was the leader in sophisticated travel, we were the trend setters and before we knew it competition had passed us by.

?We are not one of the leading tourism destinations like we used to be, if that happened to tourism the chances are it might happen to international business if we are not proactive and stay ahead of change.?

Mr. DeShields has collaborated with Profiles of Bermuda managing director Cordell Riley, who predicts that by 2010 international business will be the single largest employer in Bermuda.

?The Tourism Minister has made tremendous inroads in the marketing strategy and increasing arrivals and providing discount airlines. We are at the final stage of tourism decline and in my estimation it will increase once all these initiatives that are pending start to materialise, ? said Mr. DeShields.

?But there is still so much that needs to be done in terms of the quality of the service and product, in terms of regaining our competitiveness.

?I see a light at the end of the tunnel but we still have a long way to go.?

According to Government figures released by Tourism Minister Ewart Brown last month the tourism sector was responsible for creating between $290 million and $333 million of economic wealth for Bermuda during the past year.