Bermuda's property catastrophe insurers will not have to seriously review their estimates for this year despite American weathermen predicting a bumper hurricane season according to a leading insurance expert.

Last week the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said it now expects seven to nine hurricanes, including three to four major storms packing winds of at least 111 mph.

An above-average two hurricanes and two tropical storms have formed so far as the season approaches its peak, from mid-August through October. The full season began June 1 and ends November 30

“We normally get an update at this time of year, and it is not significant news and does not really change anything for the property catastrophe insurers,” said Robert Hartwig, chief economist at the Insurance Information Institute.

“There has been one strike off the coast of Texas well before the peak of the season which cost an estimated $20 million to insurers which is at the lower end of the scale.”

He added that this level of catastrophe has already been factored into rates, but admitted that some say the rates are “inadequate” still to cover a large disaster.

“Despite predictions for very active seasons in recent years, very few have actually come on shore,” added Mr. Hartwig. “But it is really out of the range of our control. Each year as the season as we approach September, we essentially cross our fingers and hope.”

He added that last year was the tenth anniversary of Hurricane Andrew, which would have cost $21 billion in today's terms, but that this level of disaster had not been repeated since then.

“It is basically a technical change in numbers that doesn't reflect the way cover is worked out,” said Mr. Hartwig.

The administration updated its forecast from May, which expected six to nine hurricanes, of which two to four would become major.

The updated forecast predicts 12 to 15 tropical storms, above previous expectations of 11 to 15 tropical storms. The historical average is ten tropical storms and six hurricanes.

“Many of the hurricanes this season will develop over the tropical Atlantic and move westward as they strengthen.

These hurricanes could pose a threat to the United States and/or the Caribbean Islands,” said Dr. Gerry Bell, head of the administration's seasonal prediction team.

“Nobody can tell you exactly where they'll hit or when, but what we can say is similar seasons, based on historical data, averaged two to three land-falling hurricanes in the United States and one to two hurricanes in the region around the Caribbean Sea,” said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Mr. Mayfield said hurricanes are more likely because of several factors: relatively warm sea surface temperatures, a strong African jet stream and other conditions that have existed over the past eight years. The 1995-2002 period has been the busiest for hurricanes in more than half a century.

Hurricane forecaster William Gray updated his prediction on Wednesday, saying the remaining summer months should be quieter than normal, but October will have above-normal hurricane activity.

All forecasters cautioned coastal residents from becoming complacent.

“If you're lucky enough to live on the beautiful Gulf or Atlantic coast of the United States or down in the Caribbean, you need to be prepared no matter what,” Mr. Mayfield said.