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Tidal wave insured losses may be less than $5 billion, analyst says

(Bloomberg) Insurers? loss may be less than $5 billion from the undersea earthquake off the Indonesian island of Sumatra that sent 30-foot waves crashing into coastlines from Thailand to India, said an industry economist.

?The reason it?s so low is there?s not much insured,? said Robert Hartwig, an economist with the Insurance Information Institute in New York. ?A wave like this coming ashore in Florida would have produced economic losses dwarfing those of the hurricanes tens and tens of billions of dollars.?

Yesterday?s magnitude 9.0 quake and the ensuing tidal waves killed at least 19,000 people, mainly in areas with little insured property. Total premiums per capita in the US last year averaged $3,638, according to Swiss Reinsurance Co., compared with $14.50 in Indonesia. Most of the claims will be borne by European and Asian insurers, Hartwig said.

The damages claims add to this year record losses for the industry. Insurers will record claims of least $42 billion, with a majority stemming from four hurricanes that ripped into coastal Florida, Swiss Re estimated on December 16.

The previous record was in 1992. Claims that year reached $38 billion, adjusted for inflation, mainly from losses incurred when Hurricane Andrew struck south Florida.

Total economic losses from all natural and man-made disasters reached at least $105 billion in 2004, Swiss Re estimated.

Aftershocks of the Indonesian quake may cause more tidal waves, or tsunamis, and flooding over the next few days, officials in India and Malaysia said. Since the earthquake struck at 7 a.m. local time yesterday, there have been another 25 aftershocks, the US Geological Survey said.

Swiss Re, based in Zurich, said the claims from the flooding would be less than the $27 billion from US hurricanes this year.

?The region that?s affected is very big so we have to check country by country,? Serge Troeber, deputy head of Swiss Re?s natural disasters department, said in an interview.

Hannover Re, the world?s fifth-largest reinsurer, expects its claims will be in the ?small, double-digit? millions of euros, said Gabriele Handrick, a spokeswoman for the Hanover, Germany-based company. The company left its profit forecast unchanged.

Munich Re, the world?s largest reinsurer, and Amsterdam- based ING Groep, the biggest Dutch insurer, said it?s too soon to estimate damages. Munich-based Allianz AG, Europe?s No. 1 insurer, said it doesn?t expect the disaster to have reduce earnings.

Swiss Re shares fell 1.45 Swiss francs to 81.2 francs ($71.65) at 5.30 p.m. in Zurich. Shares of Munich Re fell 1.40 euros to 90.05 euros ($122.78) in Frankfurt. Hannover Re shares rose 0.08 euro to 28.83 euros. Reinsurers help insurers such as Allianz and Axa SA spread the risk they take on for clients.

?It?s still absolutely not clear how high the damages will be, although they should be below those from hurricanes in Florida,? said Helmut Hipper, who manages the equivalent of about $1.3 billion for Union Investment in Frankfurt. ?We should get some news from the insurers by the end of the week.?

Shares of many US property and casualty insurers declined. American International Group Inc. stock fell 56 cents to $65.73, Chubb Corp. dropped 36 cents to $75.61 and St. Paul Travelers Cos. slipped 28 cents to $36.78 at 11.43 a.m. in New York.

Munich Re spokesman Florian Woest said the company may be able to provide a damage estimate when it releases an annual report on natural disasters on December 29 or December 30.

The Munich-based reinsurer last month lowered its target for 2004 earnings after the worst US hurricane season in more than a century led to 550 million euros of damage claims. Hannover Re last month reported a loss in the third quarter after lowering its profit forecast 23 percent in October.

Japanese insurers also provide little coverage in Southeast Asia, analysts such as Futoshi Sasaki said.

?On the whole, the impact is likely to be small, though detailed information isn?t yet available,? said Sasaki, an insurance analyst at Morgan Stanley Japan Ltd. ?Japanese insurers don?t really take risks on earthquakes in the region.?

?We?re investigating details of the incident by contacting our local office employees,? Wataru Soshi, a Tokyo-based spokesman for Millea?s Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance Co. unit said.

Bajaj Allianz General Insurance Co. Ltd., an Indian property and casualty insurer, is awaiting an assessment of damages claims, said Krishnamoorthy Rao, chief underwriter.

?It will take us at least a week to get a clear picture,? Rao said in an interview from Pune in western Maharashtra state.

Thai Reinsurance Pcl, a national reinsurer, said it expects losses of as much as 100 million baht ($2.6 million).

Shares of the company fell as much as 8 percent to 3.92 baht, the lowest level since May 2, 2003. The stock closed at 4.12 baht. Countries such as Sri Lanka that haven?t experienced a tsunami weren?t prepared. Most of the damage occurred in coastal areas that are also tourist destinations.

?A lot of the property and hotels may not even be covered by insurance,? said Murtaza Jafferjee, who manages $12 million of Sri Lankan stocks at JB Securities Pvt. ?No one in Sri Lanka would even expect a tsunami to hit.?