SPIN, errors and manipulation of statistics have led to inflated Government claims of a recovery in the tourism industry, the United Bermuda Party (UBP) claimed yesterday.

The Opposition pointed to an unpublicised change in the method of calculating visitor expenditure totals ? which led to figures for the past two years being revised upwards ? as evidence for their complaint.

In fact, the Department of Statistics' figure on what visitors spent in 2004 was boosted by $31 million after the new methodology was used.

The UBP also took aim at for reporting in this Tuesday's edition that there had been a $40-million increase in visitor spending in the second quarter compared to 2005, when the official figures showed the rise was only $25 million.

Adding to the confusion, the Department of Statistics yesterday withdrew its monthly bulletin for the second quarter for reprinting, because of errors.

Government statistician Jo Ann MacMillan yesterday confirmed that a new method was being used to calculate visitor spending.

She added that previously published figures for the past two years had been projections based on the rise in the cost of living. Figures going back to 2004 had been adjusted after the processing of exit surveys ? forms filled in by visitors at the Bermuda International Airport before they leave ? had allowed statisticians to calculate a more accurate figure, she added.

In a statement released yesterday, the Department of Statistics explained why it was re-releasing its quarterly bulletin for the period April to June, which was originally published on Monday.

"A printing error resulted in incorrect data being published for the 2003 to 2005 period," the statement said. "The re-issued attached data tables include the corrected revised data for the period 2003 to 2005. Please note that there are no issues with the analytical text in the original publication.

"The Department of Statistics regrets this error and would like to apologise to all data users for any inconvenience this may have caused."

Revised tables released yesterday included a footnote stating: "Please note that improvements to the travel expenditure methodology from Q1 2004 to the current quarter make comparisons with the historical data no longer possible."

Last year the official figure for visitor spending in 2004 was published as $362.4 million. After revision, that number has become $393.4 million.

And the reported $36.8 million jump in air visitor spending in the second quarter on accommodation and food to $102.7 million in 2006 from $65.9 million in 2005 has also fuelled Opposition suspicion.

The UBP is now questioning how much of the most recently claimed rise in tourist spending is real and how much is down to the new method of calculation.

The Opposition statement, attributed to MPs David Dodwell and Grant Gibbons, states: "The statistics bulletin deepens ongoing questions about the role of spin and deception in relation to the Government's claims of recovery.

"We are especially concerned by the Government's recent expansion of the definition of tourism spending, which now apparently includes new factors such as spending by the crews of cruise ships.

"These changes were made without an official announcement and can be seen as a manipulation to pump up the numbers.

"There is nothing wrong with changing methodology in the gathering of statistics, but it is essential that changes be disclosed and explained to the public so that people can adjust their interpretation of the numbers."

But Ms MacMillan denied the claims of political manipulation of the numbers.

"Previously we were projecting forward our estimates and now we have gone back to the exit surveys and used the data from them to update the figures," Ms MacMillan said.

"In 2004, for example, the total amount spent by air arrivals was revised to $343 million from $309 million.

"So the revised figures are based on actual data, rather than projections based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and are more accurate."

A further change was to include money spent in restaurants in the "accommodation and food" section, rather than in "entertainment and shopping", she added.

Ms MacMillan said the latest quarterly statistics were based on projections and that when exit surveys for the period had been processed, they too would be revised.

The Department of Statistics last year took over responsibility for calculating the island's balance of payments from the Bermuda Monetary Authority.

"We do include data from the crews of cruise ships in the balance of payments figures, because many of them spend a lot of time in Bermuda and even have local bank accounts," Ms MacMillan said. "But we do not include them in the visitor expenditure figures."

However the UBP is also suspicious about the language used in statistics bulletins.

"We are also concerned by the Government's ongoing focus on spin as evidenced in this week's bulletin of statistics. There is a fondness for upbeat, inflated words such as 'robust' and 'boom' to describe tourism's performance, and a disposition to accentuate the positive.

"The UBP believes the public should be given the most accurate picture of the tourism industry, if only because the truth will enable people to make more informed choices about the way ahead."

The Opposition statement painted a grim picture of the state of tourism.

"The fact is that in the five completed years since 2001, Bermuda's tourism industry registered the worst year-to-year performance since the start of mass tourism in 1960s," the statement read. "The positive results that the Government wants to fix in people's minds come from a place where there is virtually nowhere to go but up.

"It is also important to note that the latest figures are driven by the Government's unprecedented reliance on cruise ship visitors, whose numbers distract from the fact that our hotel industry is a shadow of its former self.

"Most Bermudians understand that cruise visitors ? now accounting for over half the visitors to the island ? do not create the level of economic activity that air visitors do. Industry measures indicate that you need nine cruise ship passengers to equal the spending of one hotel visitor."