Some people think fashion is what you see on the runway, or what makes it into the fashion magazines, or what shows up in the windows of the fanciest shop in town. But clothes on runways, on magazine covers and in shop windows aren?t fashion ? not yet, anyway. They?re proposed fashion. They?re wannabes. They aren?t demonstrably in fashion until significant numbers of real people discover that they want them, and buy them and wear them. (Or want them, and buy and wear knock-offs.)

When I invested $100 each in 30 different fashion and retail stocks 2 years ago, I hoped I?d learn something about what?s really happening in fashion ? not what the fashion editors say is happening, but what real women are voting for with their VISAs and MasterCards.

The companies that came closest to offering shoppers what they really wanted, I figured, would make the most money.

My biggest winner was Coldwater Creek, which turned my $100 into $429. Coldwater sells clothes that appeal to ageing baby boomers (and their older sisters) who want to feel comfortable in their clothes but haven?t given up on dressing with style. But why were they so successful when Talbots, which targets the same demographic, lost $4 of my $100?

Lori Wachs, a portfolio manager at Delaware Investments who follows the stocks of many fashion and retail companies, says fashion made the difference.

The stock price is a function of the way the two companies responded ? or failed to respond ? to a major change in what women wear.

?There?s been such a shift in the way people dress for the office,? she said. ?It used to be structured clothes and skirt suits.?

And then came the great tide of casual Fridays and casual-every-other-day. Now, Wachs says, forecasters are looking for a trend to more dressing up, but women still ?aren?t going back to that structured look.? They want ?more of a softer silhouette,? and they ?want separates?.

Coldwater Creek?s clothes tend to be easy-fitting and unstructured: lots of knits and lots of separates. Meanwhile, many of Talbot?s offerings are still in the tailored segment ? suits, blazers, etc.

Wachs said Ann Taylor, which also built its reputation on tailored career clothes, is having the same problem. The store also sells casual clothes under its Ann Taylor Loft label, but ?their casual is more weekend? than business casual.

Wachs said Anthropologie is another player that?s done a good job in the boomer segment, and yet another is Chico?s, which targets ?an older demographic, probably the over-50 set. They?ve made their franchise around comfortable, fashionable clothing.? (I have to say that, judging by the letters I get, lots of women this age and older still feel nobody?s making clothes for them.)

Another plus for Chico?s, Wachs said, is their frequent shopper club: Once you?ve spent $500, you get 5 percent off all purchases for life. The membership list, she said, provides the store with ?a great database? to market to.

Databases, it turns out, aren?t just for marketing anymore. Traditionally, to figure out where consumer taste is now and where it?s going next, buyers and merchandise managers depended on that all-purpose attribute of the visually talented, ?a good eye?. That, and an intuitive ability to identify with customer needs and aspirations.

But intuition only goes so far. One way Nordstrom turned my $100 into $241.53, Wachs said, was by beefing up the computer system that tracks its inventory.

Nordstrom already had a well-established reputation for ?differentiated merchandise? ? i.e., selling things you won?t see in every other store. ?To leverage that,? Wachs said, they needed information systems that would let them ?read inventory better?.

Inventory systems sound about as sexy as plumbing and heating: An inventory tracking and management system is what keeps a store?s branches from running out of Dockers flat-front khakis in size 34-30. But it can do more: It can digest bales of individual sales records and mine them for information about what customers want. It can tell the store exactly what?s selling, at what prices, in which sizes and colours, and in which stores. It can tell how sales of different styles vary from region to region and store to store, and how customer preferences are shifting over time. In other words, it tells the store what?s in fashion.

It?s hard enough to ferret out what people want; it?s harder still to think up products that it never occurred to your customers to want ? but that they will want once you invent them. A Wall Street Journal story attributed the recent stellar performance of Coach leather goods to its management?s ability to invent whole new categories of accessories to entice their customers.

For decades, Coach sold sturdy, well-made bags that lasted virtually forever. Several years ago, a customer sent in a handbag that had faded after several years of use, and asked whether its finish could be restored. The company immediately sent her a new one, saying: ?No Coach bag should ever look like this!?

Its near-legendary quality endeared Coach to its customers ? but customers rarely replace things that never wear out. In the mid-1990s, when high-priced handbags from Fendi and Prada were hot, Coach started to look for new reasons to sell bags to its customers. The Journal described the company?s strategy this way: ?Coach creates and markets new kinds of bags to fill what it calls ?usage voids?, activities that range from weekend getaways to dancing at nightclubs to trips to the grocery store.? Those activities didn?t seem to require special handbags ? until Coach designed bags for them.

Its first breakthrough was the wristlet, a small essentials-only zipper bag that could fit neatly into a larger bag ? or be worn looped over the wrist on the dance floor. Coach sold 100,000 wristlets the first year.

The ?weekend bag,? made of durable, waterproof, easy-to-clean fabric in cheerful colors, and meant for summer weekends, was another success.

Coach?s latest idea: Evening bags for daytime. If women feel free to mix stiletto heels and diamond earrings with blue jeans, why not a satin handbag with casual clothes?

So far the strategy has succeeded well enough to turn my $100 into $253.06.

@EDITRULE:Write to Patricia McLaughlin c/o Universal Press Syndicate, 4520 Main St., Kansas City, MO 64111 or patsy.mclverizon.net