Running out of space
For some years now, there has been debate about whether Bermuda has reached a point in its development where further growth is simply not possible because of strains on the infrastructure.
There was a good deal of talk in the 1980s about ?zero growth? being desirable. That talk dissipated during the recession of the early 1990s, when reductions in employment and wealth made growth look like a pretty good idea after all.
Debate arose again in the late 1990s, now under the label ?sustainable development? as international business overtook tourism as the Island?s main source of income.
In addition to environmental concerns, worries grew over the perception that Bermudians were being displaced in their own country. Shortages in housing, office space, increasingly jammed roads and a lack of private school places (coupled with lack of confidence in public education), combined to create the sense that Bermuda had gone too far, too fast.
More broadly, the concerns reflect the shift in the economy and the perception that whereas Bermudians had profited quite nicely from tourism and tourism-related businesses, they have shared less in the sometimes remarkable success of international companies. This is not entirely fair or accurate. Thousands of Bermudians benefit directly or indirectly from international business. But the training and skills required are quite different from those needed for the tourism industry.
Now, Brian O?Hara, the chief executive officer of Bermuda insurance behemoth XL Capital, has become an unlikely participant in the debate.
At a conference last week, he was asked if the Bermuda insurance market had ?peaked?.
Mr. O?Hara said he thought existing companies would continue to grow, but much of the growth would be overseas and not in Bermuda. And he doubted if Bermuda would be able to take another wave of insurance start-ups as it had after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.
?There is a finite amount of space,? he said of Bermuda, citing shortages of housing and prime office buildings.
Mr. O?Hara?s answer dealt not so much with the state of the insurance market as with the quality of life in Bermuda.
Mr. O?Hara?s concern appears to be that continued expansion will diminish the quality of life that Bermuda offers to the point where executives and the like simply will not wish to move to the Island. If they cannot find executive style homes, or top quality office space, or schools for their children, they just won?t come.
Those who support sustainable development may feel that?s just fine. But it is important to remember that economic growth is not static. Just as new insurance companies form, so others fall by the wayside, in the same way that other businesses rise and fall.
Bermuda?s economic history is essentially a history of booms and busts, from tobacco to salt to ship-building to agriculture to tourism and now to international business.
Bringing down the gates on international business may also block the next economic idea and that would be an enormous risk.
At the same time, there is no doubt that Bermuda is changing, and not all of the so-called advances are necessarily for the better. The strains on Bermuda?s physical and social fabric are clear to see and there is no consensus on how the Island should go forward.
Does it want to be a Manhattan or Hong Kong perched in the mid-Atlantic, or does it want to preserve what?s left of its natural beauty? These are not easy questions. They demand a public debate. Mr. O?Hara has helped to make that possible.