Energy power concerns
LONDON (Reuters) — Bolivia’s startling seizure of its gas fields has intensified fears of “resource nationalism” tightening global energy supplies and inflating prices for years to come.Emboldened by record oil prices, producer governments from Venezuela to Russia are grabbing more money and control from foreign investors.
“When government action, whether it goes by resource nationalism or any other name, dampens or deters investment — it’s going to fuel the money coming into the market and be price supportive,” said Michael Wittner of investment bank Calyon.
The nationalisation of Bolivia’s gas sector has added yet more bullish sentiment to a world oil market already driven beyond $74 on fears of supply outages from OPEC producer Iran.
Producers have struggled to keep pace with explosive energy demand growth in Asia and the United States that has fuelled oil’s four-year rally.
Consumer governments have urged producing nations and oil companies to inflate the supply cushion for the world’s 85 million barrels per day market. Spare output capacity now stands at about two million bpd, most of that in Saudi Arabia.
For foreign investors, the challenge is that the world’s remaining energy reserves lie in the Middle East and Russia where doing business in oilfields can be too dangerous or costly — or, in the case of Saudi Arabia, off limits.
“The oil is in the ground waiting to be exploited,” said Wittner. “But how do we get access to what is left? At the end of the day the drill bit has to hit the ground.”
For the multinationals, that may be easier said than done. Russia had been a prime investment play for Western oil companies until Moscow recently raised taxes and seized more state control.
Disruption to Europe’s gas supplies due to a dispute between Russia’s state gas monopoly Gazprom and Ukraine over pricing deepened concern about producer power.
Without outside help, production from Russia, the world’s second biggest oil exporter, could slow further.
“Russia offers clear evidence of how resource nationalism can have a material impact on supply growth,” said Kevin Norrish of Barclays Capital.
“Oil production growth has declined and a key factor is that private oil companies are having to operate in a very uncertain environment that raises the cost of doing business.”
That is also clearly the case in Latin America, where analysts advising investors say leftist governments are in the grip of “creeping nationalisation” and Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, the world’s fifth-largest oil exporter, is role model for many.
Bolivian President Evo Morales, in nationalising South America’s second-biggest gas reserves after Venezuela, echoed the actions of his ally Chavez who forced foreign investors into new, tighter contracts and imposed retroactive tax increases.
“This is the tip of the iceberg in Latin America,” said Irena Agalliu, senior legal analyst at energy consultancy IHS.
Ecuador’s lawmakers approved a government-sponsored bill that will force oil firms to hand over at least 50 percent of profits resulting from oil revenues above benchmark prices.
And in Peru, analysts expect a shake-up in energy policy regardless of who wins the run-off for the presidency.
Critics say the nationalist strategy will backfire on producers, which are in desperate need of the technology and capital on offer from the multinationals.
Many in Latin America learnt their lesson the hard way after the nationalisations in the 1950s and 1970s.
“That’s why they are following the route of quasi- or creeping nationalisation,” said Agalliu.
“They are making sure they still keep the oil companies around at significantly worse terms than the ones mutually agreed when the contracts were signed.”
Others say the threat of nationalism may be overstated.
“Development will not necessarily be slower just because a host government takes ownership of its resources or relegates companies to an operator role,” said Julian Lee of the Centre for Global Energy Studies.
For a Factbox in range of government intervention in South America and beyond click on [1/8]nL0264555[3/8].
