Staples strategy not a sure success
OTTAWA (Reuters) - Investors unable to stomach a fitful market and unsettled by economic worries might seek refuge in recession-resistant consumer stocks, but success in this safe-haven strategy won't come easy.
Profit hinges on tough scrutiny and sifting through lean offerings to unearth the best bargains with the most potential, while weeding out those stocks too badly damaged by rough competition or a poor business strategy.
"The argument for staples, conceptually, may be fantastic, but the actual companies available on the Toronto Stock Exchange may not be so fantastic," said Merrill Lynch Canada chief economist David Wolf.
"A macro idea is great, but it always needs to be tempered by microanalysis, or you can get yourself into trouble."
Several analysts say that sector stars include pharmacy retailer Shoppers Drug Mart, coffee and doughnut chain Tim Hortons and auto parts and household goods retailer Canadian Tire.
Shoppers, whose stock is down about four percent so far this year, is forecasting growth of 12 percent to 15 percent in 2008.
Some of the credit for Shoppers' solid financials goes to a carefully planned strategy and early preparation for Wal-Mart's push into the Canadian market, analysts add.
"Three-quarters of their revenue is derived from truly staple goods that will not fluctuate in a recession," said Research Capital analyst Stuart Morrow. "So that's a pretty good investment if you're looking at a downturn."
Like Shoppers, Canadian Tire and Tim Hortons are buttressed by the durable name they have established.
"They have great brand value and each has their own core market that they've carved out and that they own, and are able to defend in an economic slowdown," Morrow said. "All of those things are great things to have ... if you're talking about a slowdown, especially in a consumer environment."
Shares in Canadian Tire — which also owns gas bars, financial services and clothing chain Mark's Work Wearhouse — are off 11 percent this year. It recently forecast growth of two percent to seven percent in 2008, versus about 18 percent in 2007.
Tim Hortons said this past week it expects 10 percent operating income growth in 2008, repeating its 2007 target. Its stock is down about five percent this year.
