PREMIER Jennifer Smith may step down before the next General Election to make way for Progressive Labour Party warhorse Reginald Burrows, political insiders are speculating.

A pre-election exit strategy for the Premier has been discussed for some weeks because her plunging poll numbers - which stood at a record low of 33 percent in the most recent Research Innovations opinion poll conducted for the Mid-Ocean News last month - make it seem increasingly unlikely she could lead the PLP to a second consecutive term in Government.

Insiders in both major political parties believe Mr. Burrows, a Southampton East Parliamentarian since 1968 with a reputation for fiscal and social conservativism, is being groomed to succeed Ms Smith because he would project a more populist and centrist image for the PLP.

It is believed that Ms Smith could be the recipient of a major award in the Queen's Birthday Honours List, which will be announced the week of Friday, June 13. On Saturday, June 14, Mr. Burrows is to be feted at a black-tie dinner being held at the Southampton Princess Hotel by Transport Minister Dr. Ewart Brown's Bermuda Healthcare Foundation.

"It certainly looks like they're choreographing a succession plan; Jennifer will get her honour on Friday and begin the process of bowing out," said a source close to Government.

"On Saturday Reggie Burrows will be thrust into the limelight at this gala affair and presented to Bermuda's business and political elite; the sponsorship tickets for the event run into the thousands of dollars, so you know that it's an opportunity to trot him out to the island's movers and shakers at what will be a major media event, to say here is this earnest, stalwart individual who has given a lifetime of low-profile but dedicated service to his community - and who can really do a better job at the helm than Jennifer Smith.

"The received wisdom in political circles is that the thinking behind the Bermuda Healthcare Foundation dinner is twofold - to honour Reggie for his service and to launch him as Jennifer Smith's successor."

The Government insider said the selection of Mr. Burrows for such a high-profile honour added some credence to suggestions he was going to replace Jennifer Smith before the next General Election. "Ask yourself this: Why has Reginald Burrows been selected for this singular honour? That's not to downplay his contributions in the least but he's a very quiet, very private man who has shunned the limelight throughout his entire political career.

"Why not honour the Attorney General, a founding member and former leader of the PLP who has announced she will be stepping down at the next General Election. She is, after all, considered something of a living legend by the PLP rank and file.

"Why not honour Eugene Cox, the Finance Minister? He's been ailing recently and if anybody deserves a tribute for his years of sterling service it is him. Mr. Cox is widely liked and respected by both the PLP grassroots and the business community. It strikes me as somewhat more than passing strange that Reginald Burrows is suddenly being feted in this manner after having spent a political lifetime avoiding just such adulation. It's not his style, not in his nature.

"But first and foremost he is a loyal party man and if he's been leaned on by his colleagues to get them through the next General Election, I cannot see him declining. That's also not in his nature."

Government insiders say the Cabinet rift between the Premier's loyalists - who include Attorney General Dame Lois Browne Evans, Finance Minister Cox and Education Minister Paula Cox - and her opponents - believed to be headed by Dr. Brown - has grown so wide in recent months it is now unbridgeable.

"There's no way they can go into a General Election and give the appearance of being a united team under Jennifer Smith's leadership; it just cannot happen. Even her supporters (in Cabinet) are growing increasingly dismayed by her hands-off approach, by her remoteness, not just from the public but from her own Parliamentary team.

"If her poll numbers were high, I think everyone would hold their noses, keep their mouths shut and get behind her. But that isn't the case. There are a growing number of PLP MPs who are getting worried about hanging on to their own seats at the next election, let alone hanging on to the Government.

"If Reggie Burrows was to become Premier sometime in the summer, he'd be able to enjoy a brief honeymoon period, hopefully revive the flagging spirits of people who voted for the PLP in 1998 and lead the party to a re-election victory. The party would have a new face, be under new management."

The last Research Innovations survey showed that the UBP had eked out a minor lead over the PLP for the first time in the five years since the ongoing rolling poll was first carried out.

It is not known if the Burrows scenario - which was being discussed openly in the PLP Parliamentary caucus as recently as March - has been accepted by the Premier or, as one United Bermuda Party MP said, amounts to "so much wishful thinking on the part of Jennifer's enemies in Cabinet."

"I cannot see Jennifer accepting such a proposal; if comes to pass then she will have been pushed out of office, she won't have jumped.

"Reggie Burrows' name is being touted because clearly he would be a credible compromise candidate in the event she did resign. It's no secret that Ewart Brown very much wants to lead both the PLP and Bermuda. It's also no secret that Jennifer Smith would under no circumstances step aside to allow Ewart Brown to succeed her. She would rather exercise the Sampson Option - take the PLP into an election herself and see it destroyed - than give up her position to Ewart Brown.

"So enter Reggie Burrows.

"He's acceptable to the Ewart Brown camp, acceptable to the Jennifer Smith camp and acceptable to the Bermudian community at large."

The UBP insider said the position of her aide-de-camp Senator David Burch would be key to any decision the Premier made about her political future.

"David Burch loves the Premier, but he loves politics more. He wants to be on a winning team and continue to serve in Cabinet - not on the Opposition benches. If he can convince Jennifer Smith that she can leave office with some dignity - as the first PLP leader to have won a General Election, as the first incumbent PLP leader to be knighted - then she would probably go. Not necessarily because she'd agree with the Colonel's logic but if she recognised that she had lost his support, well, then the writing would be very much on the wall.

"Even Burch can't ignore what's happening. With the Premier's credibility continuing to plummet, this is having a very damaging coat-tails effect on the PLP's General Election prospects. The party is being dragged down by its leader's unpopularity.

"The predictions about Reggie, if they came to pass, would make for a dream scenario for the PLP.

"And if I was Grant Gibbons, I'd be quite frightened by the prospect of going head-to-head with Reggie Burrows in a General Election. He's a quiet but formidable man, well-liked in the community and he projects an image of gravitas that the PLP desperately needs right now.

"The PLP MPs would all close ranks around him; he'd re-energise their election prospects and I think the resulting race would be far, far closer than might be the case if Jennifer Smith stays in place."

The sniping between the pro- and anti-Premier camps within Cabinet has become so intense recently that Government sources speculate news of the infamous Cainet Office meeting between the Premier and a visiting Baltimore mystic was leaked to the media by one of the Jennifer Smith's colleagues in a bid to further discredit her.

"The Premier is so invisible - such a 'Stealth Premier' - nobody outside the Cabinet knows her schedule from day-to-day - even year-to-year, for that matter.

"And The Bermuda Sun just happened to have a photographer on the Cabinet Office grounds to get a picture of this refugee from the Psychic Friends Network in flowing white robes coming out of a private meeting with the Premier? Think about it: the long-arm of coincidence just doesn't stretch that far, at least not in my experience."