THE sea will swallow up low-lying areas of Bermuda ? the only question is how fast it will happen, according to a top Canadian scientist.

Steve Blasco, who is involved in the Bermuda Underwater Exploration Institute's sea levels project and is deputy chairman of the BUEI International Advisory Board, was speaking after scientists produced new evidence of a gradually warming ocean.

The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), carried out by more than 300 scientists and commissioned by countries of the Arctic region, predicted that all the ice in the Arctic Ocean would disappear during the summers by some time between 2060 to 2100.

Even small a small rise in the sea level during the coming years is likely to have a major impact on the island, particularly in that storm surges will cause more damage and flooding. In the longer term, low-lying areas will be reclaimed by the sea.

Mr. Blasco told the that melting sea ice would not necessarily bring up sea levels, though a warming of the ocean would.

"If you have some ice cubes in a glass of rum, as the ice melts the glass will not overflow," Mr. Blasco said. "It's the same with ice that's floating in the sea. It's already displacing water, so when it melts it does not make the level rise.

"It would be different if glacial ice in Greenland, for example, started to melt. That would be water leaving the land and would mean there was more water in the sea."

Mr. Blasco said that thermal expansion ? water expanding as it warmed up ? was a more important factor in rising sea levels than melting ice. And the Arctic study was certainly further evidence of warming seas, he said. The ongoing BUEI sea level project estimates that sea levels have risen by around 30 feet over the past 7,300 years. Cedar stumps, submerged in various locations off the island, were the clues that allowed scientists to make their deduction.

However, the rate of the rising of the ocean appears to be speeding up. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted a sea level rise of between 1.5 and three feet during this century, compared to last century's rise of between eight and 12 inches.

Factored into their calculations are thermal expansion due to global warming and the anticipated melting of glacial ice. Global warming is widely thought to have accelerated due to the burning of fossil fuels. The report on the Arctic, where temperatures have risen at twice the rate of most other areas on the planet, predicts a temperature rise of between four and seven degrees by 2100.

Permafrost is melting, trees are growing further north and species such as polar bears are having to adapt to survive the changing conditions.

The report, a comprehensive survey that took four years to compile, also points out that not all the repercussions of the melting ice will be negative.

Agriculture may become easier in some areas and there should be improved access to some oil and natural gas deposits. New shipping lanes may open up and some fisheries are likely to become more productive.

However, rising sea level is bad news for small islands and coastal communities around the world.

The South Pacific island group of Tuvalu, which has no land higher than two or three metres, is a case in point. The 11,000 inhabitants are suffering from lowland flooding, coastal erosion and the encroachment of salt water causing problems with agriculture and the water supply.

"Sea levels are on the rise, that will continue, and anybody in the world who lives on a coastline will be affected by it, as storms and surges become more effective," Mr. Blasco said. "There is no question sea levels will continue to rise, the only question is at what rate it's going to happen ? slow, medium or fast. As scientists, we can't say with certainty which it's going to be because there are so many variables involved.

"What people can do is to think carefully when planning development close to the shoreline and what specifications should be required for such buildings.

"This is already happening in Florida, which was hit by four hurricanes this year. They are requiring that mobile homes there should be underpinned by rods going down 30 feet into the bedrock.

"In Bermuda, the Department of the Environment recently commissioned a report on coastline erosion and we can get an idea of things to come by looking at the damage that Fabian did."