Thirteen more people will die this year as a result of road traffic collisions.

That's a mathematical prediction of what will happen in 2005 if fatal collisions continue to occur at the same rate they have so far this year. In reality, the death toll could be more than that - hopefully it will be less.

Police estimated last night that there have been 475 collisions so far this year. Using the same math, Bermudians can expect roughly 800 more collisions to occur on the roads this year, or around one for every 80 residents, nearly four accidents per day. Some of those future collisions could just be fender benders; others may be serious, paralysing, life-threatening collisions - there is no way of telling.

Some of them may involve family members or friends, and may change your life even if you were not there. One could be you - one would be all it would take.

One young Bermudian man speaking to The Royal Gazette said recently of riding his bike: “It's like a video game - until you put your hand on the tarmac. That's real.”

But that's just the problem. It's not a video game. In fact, it doesn't get much more real than viewing the bloody scene of a fatal collision. And we can't all be stopping in the middle of the road to feel how hard and unforgiving it is - in fact, that would probably just cause more accidents. This reporter was literally just interrupted in the writing of this article by a friend who called - from his cellphone, while riding his bike. He was promptly ordered to hang up and call back once he was safe and sound in a nice padded armchair inside his house.

What is going on?

Last night Transport Minister Ewart Brown admitted he does not know how to change the mindset.

“We are truly saddened and depressed with the present trend,” he said. “I honestly don't know how to change it other than for the community to collectively respond to tragedy - in a logical way.

“I was a teenager, I used to ride bikes,” he added. “I wish I could be optimistic. But unless we outlaw the riding of bikes, it's going to be extremely difficult.”

Eight people have died so far this year, leaving their families and friends in shock and grief. Scott Gibbons was the first - he died on the Causeway on February 7. His mother, Pam Gibbons, trapped in the traffic jams stretching on either side of the Causeway as a result of the accident, had no idea that her son was involved until she got to work.

“He was coming down the hill on his bike and after I got down the steps he tore down the road like crazy,” a cousin told The Royal Gazette of seeing the 34 year old that morning minutes before the accident occurred. “I said to myself, Scott, take it easy, I hope nothing happens. I hope nothing happens.”

Canadian tourist Michael Taylor, 38, was the second - just days after Mr. Gibbons, in a collision at Crow Lane on February 12. Just hours before he died, Mr. Taylor had been interviewed by The Royal Gazette for an article on Valentine's Day. He told the newspaper that he considered every day to be Valentine's Day and thought flowers and other traditional gifts were the ideal way to spoil the one you love.

He had added with a smile that the most expensive gift he'd ever bought anyone on Valentine's Day was a diamond ring.

The third person to die on Bermuda's roads in 2005 was the youngest this year, 15-year-old Krystle Maya Babon. The 17-year-old boy driving the bike she was on when the collision occurred was violating his curfew from the Co-Ed Facility when the collision took place on March 19 on Harbour Road in Warwick.

Her family and friends were too grief-stricken to speak with this newspaper the morning after the tragedy occurred, though family members later called to express their thankfulness at the unprecedented flow of support from the community.

Irishman Brian Hughes, 26, was the fourth fatality - a guest worker who had been on the Island barely a month before he died following a collision on East Broadway on Good Friday, very near to the spot where Mr. Taylor was killed. His family also later wrote to thank Bermudian Police, colleagues, hospital staff and friends for the outpouring of support they received.

Fifth was Andrei Holling, a 29-year-old German contract worker, on April 25 on South Road. Yesterday Mr. Holling's employers at Elbow Beach expressed their sadness and shock at losing the quiet, humorous chef de partie. “He leaves behind many friends and colleagues who miss him very much.”

Scott Kozma, 21, was sixth, on April 29 - and family friends Veronica and Chuck Renaud were stunned by the violent grief experienced by the young man's friends. “Just learn that speed kills,” Mrs. Renaud said. “This is the proof.”

Hoping Scott's death would be a reality check for the young man's friends, she and her husband were praying that the lesson would hit home, saying that if just one person learned from Scott's mistake, it would be enough.

Then, just nine days later, 32-year-old Eric Morrison, a Jamaican landscaper, had to be pried from his motorcycle by firefighters on Glebe Road in Pembroke.

Mr. Morrison had been working in Bermuda for less than three months when he became the Island's seventh road fatality in 2005 - equalling the 2004 yearly total in just five months.

On Monday, Eugene Christopher pushed that tally over the top, becoming the eighth person to die on Bermuda's roads just 137 days in to 2005, and just 99 days after Scott Gibbons was killed. That means that on average one person has been killed roughly every two weeks since Mr. Gibbons died on February 7.

Some 24 hours after Mr. Christopher's death a 34 year old found himself lucky to be alive after losing control of his bike at high speeds and flipping over a wall near the Waterlot Inn in Southampton yesterday morning. “We are at a point of critical concern,” Police media spokesman and member of the Road Safety Council Dwayne Caines said last night. “This is a concern and it should be for the community.”

So far, Dr. Brown said, statistics have not shown that recently legislated larger cars and motorbikes are affecting the carnage on the roads - but Government is watching for trends.

The Royal Gazette was unable to contact Road Safety Council chairman Joe Froncioni last night, but in August, 2004 he said Bermuda was facing a major problem. “The roads have become unsafe for all users ... The driving is appalling, disrespect for existing laws is rampant and it crosses all demographics.”

At the time Dr. Froncioni called enforcement of traffic laws as part of the solution. “These laws have to have teeth. They have to hurt. They have to deter people from bad road behaviour.”

At the time, Dr. Brown said Government was relying on the Road Safety Council to stimulate public discussion, as well as for recommendations on how to tackle the problem - however he did not feel that “Draconian” legislation was the answer.

Yesterday he stood by that sentiment, but added that Government was reviewing the entire Road Traffic Act. Nevertheless, “something tells me, perhaps from reviewing other jurisdictions, that Draconian punishment does not deter people from making silly decisions.”

“I would like to think it would be so, because that would be an easy fix,” he added.

Government will also be intensifying its traffic education programme and increasing the message of safety on the roads, Dr. Brown said, adding that the sheer numbers of cars on the roads are contributing to the problem. “There is less time to correct ... you have to assume a car is coming around that corner.”

For now, he said, “I will continue to plead with the public to be more careful.”

“The message is simple,” Mr. Caines added yesterday. “Slow down on our roads and make wise decisions and let's save lives.”