Reinsurers’ shares hit record highs on rate rise hopes
Shares of several Bermuda re/insurers hit record levels yesterday as investors bet a string of recent catastrophes may push up prices across the industry.RenaissanceRe, Validus Holdings and Arch Capital all touched all-time highs in New York Stock Exchange trading.Buyers rushed in, even after earthquakes in New Zealand and Japan this year generated first-quarter industry losses that could top $40 billion.Though the massive claims will hurt profitability in the short term, some experts are now expecting to see substantial increases in rates that would reverse the multi-year decline in prices.Class of 1993 reinsurer RenRe touched a record high of $71.69 yesterday, before paring some of those gains to close the day on $71.17, up $1.75, or 2.5 percent.Arch Capital, which was founded nearly 10 years ago, also scaled new heights yesterday, at one point reaching $103.43, before closing at $102.24, up $1.72, or 1.7 percent for the day.Validus, the class of 2005 reinsurer, followed a similar pattern, soaring to a record high share price of $34.48, before pulling back slightly late in the day to close on $34.25, up 55 cents, or 1.6 percent.Other big climbers were Everest Re (up 2.2 percent), Ace (1.7 percent), Montpelier Re (1.7 percent), PartnerRe (1.7 percent).“Property reinsurance stocks including RenaissanceRe, Everest Re, Arch Capital, Ace and XL Group appear to already be pricing in expectations of significant property rate improvement,” Jay Gelb, an insurance analyst at Barclays Capital, wrote in a note to investors yesterday.Citigroup analysts upgraded five reinsurance stocks and one insurer yesterday on expectations the shares will rally in the wake of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan last month.Arch, Axis Capital, PartnerRe and Everest Re were upgraded to buy from hold by the analysts.The analysts studied the performance of insurance and reinsurance stocks after 11 big industry losses and found that after three months the group outperformed the Standard and Poor’s 500 index by about 200 basis points on average. But the top third of the sector outperformed by 800 basis points, the analysts noted.“Takeaway is that stocks can move even if pricing doesn’t,”the Citigroup analysts wrote.