A meeting of top reinsurers and the world's foremost experts at climate prediction experienced a front and centre confrontation as three days of meetings opened.

New Zealander, Dr. Kevin Trenberth, who heads up the Climate Analysis Section of the National Centre for Atmospheric Research in the US, concluded that "the existence of climate change means that the risk of occurrence of various phenomenon and extremes will not be the same in the future, as they have been in the past.'' Colorado State professor, Dr. William Gray, said that there are a number of experts who will disagree. Dr. Gray, himself, is an expert and currently enjoys a virtual cult following among journalists tracking hurricane activity in the Atlantic. He is an authority even Bermudians have listened to for predictions about the frequency and severity of storms during the "hurricane season''.

But yesterday's differing viewpoints was perhaps the best indication early on that the Climate Prediction and Insurance Risk Conference at the Marriott Castle Harbour Hotel will provide just what conference sponsor, Bermuda-based property catastrophe reinsurer, Centre Cat, is looking for.

The goal is to forge closer ties between the climate science and insurance communities and explore their common ground.

The difference of opinion within the scientific community provides an opportunity for the business community to learn what is known about climate prediction and what areas of study they may be able to fund, to advance that body of knowledge.

The idea is to create predictive models, sophisticated computer programmes that may eventually, actually predict on a statistical basis the likelihood of activity involving catastrophic storms and hurricanes.

The meeting was opened by Premier, the Hon. David Saul, who said that Bermudians had more than a passing interest in hurricane predictability, especially after the last few months when the Island was brushed by two hurricanes. He said that tourism, business and people's very homes can be at risk from a powerful hurricane.

Dr. Saul said: "This year the Island has come to grips with two very powerful hurricanes, Felix and Marilyn, both of which really did pose a serious threat to the Island, a threat which if had been realised, would have caused some of the extensive damage that they did find in the eastern Caribbean. Hence our paranoia with predictability of weather patterns.

"Obviously, against that particular backdrop, it is important and significant that this conference is taking place in Bermuda.

"Certainly as one of the premier business spots in the world, especially in the area of insurance and reinsurance, we appreciate that we will stand to benefit by your deliberations over the next couple of days.'' There are 35 scientists and about 100 business people who were welcomed by Bermuda Biological Station for Research Inc. (BBSR) director, Dr. Anthony Knap, who along with BBSR associate research scientist, Dr. Anthony Michaels, and University of Alaska assistant professor, Dr. Mark Johnson, founded the Atlantic Global Change Institute (AGCI) at BBSR. It is the Institute that is presenting the conference.

Dr. Knap said that the scientists taking part are among the best of the world in their discipline.

The AGCI's primary effort to connect science and business is the Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI), focusing on a detailed exploration of the connection between climate science and insurance/reinsurance practice.

A dozen reinsurers and other businesses have made a formal monetary commitment to the RPI, as the Institute seeks to build a base for funding for the work.

And with regard to the current conference, Dr. Knap said: "The research of these scientists defines the leading edge of climate prediction in this rapidly advancing field.'' A joint statement from Centre Cat CEO, Mr. Paul Hasse, and president, Mr.

Charles Kline, said: "The insurance industry is for the first time ready to incorporate information that the climate science community can provide with its risk assessment tools.

"Especially within the Bermuda-based property catastrophe market, there is a new willingness to use these analytical techniques to increase the rigour of the underwriting process.

"As climate science shifts to a mixture of pure and applied research, it is in the best interests of insurers and scientists to work together in the process of discovery.'' Dr. Saul noted: "This issue of predictability, two years ago, was not hot on the lips of insurers or other business people, let alone individual home owners. However, since that time, all of us have been a little more careful of saying that hurricanes etc., just happen. There is some predictability to it and if we can just increase that margin of predictability, we as individuals in our own homes, and as business people can see lower rates for insurance.

Consumers and businesses can benefit.''