A London-based storm forecaster predicts Atlantic storm activity is likely to be 150 percent more active this year than the average ? a worrying development for Bermuda insurers and reinsurers who saw their bottom line hit last year from hefty storm claims costing the industry, on a whole, more than $20 billion.

The August forecast, from Tropical Storm Risk, takes into account an already active season of activity through the the first two months of this year?s Atlantic storm season (June and July), and with its predictions running through the end of the official storm season on November 30.

?Based on the current and projected climate signals Atlantic basin activity is forecast to be a record-breaking 150 percent above average and US landfalling tropical cyclone activity is forecast to be 90 percent above average,? the report said.

The upgraded 2005 forecast, with TSR issuing monthly updates during the Atlantic storm season, comes on the heels of a wave of deadly hurricanes a year ago that killed some 3,000 people in the Caribbean and US.

The run of storms also carried the biggest price tag for hurricane activity, in any one year, for insurers.

In total, last year?s activity ? with powerful hurricanes Charley, Ivan, Frances and Jeanne making landfall in either the US or Caribbean ? left insurers with an estimated total bill of $22.9 billion, according to the New York-based Insurance Information Institute.

Hurricane Andrew, the 1992 storm that devastated parts of Florida, is the most costly single storm ever with insurers paying out claims totalling some $20.86 billion, in today?s dollars.

A large percentage of that bill went to Bermuda insurers and reinsurers who actively sell property-catastrophe insurance and reinsurance policies in Florida. Some of the Bermuda insurers to be hit by the insurance claims, particularly from the hurricanes that made landfall in Florida, were ACE Limited, Alea Group, AXIS Capital, Catlin Group, Endurance Specialty Holdings, IPC Re, PartnerRe, PXRE, RenaissanceRe and XL Capital.

For 2005, TSR said the predictions were based on unusually high trade winds speeds, over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, as well as higher forecasts for sea surface temperatures through September.

In specific, a total of 11 hurricanes are predicted to develop this year ? six of those forecasted to be ?intense? in strength ? from a total of 22 tropical storms. If the prediction of 22 tropical storms proves accurate, it will be a record.

The 55-year norm, which is what this year?s predictions are weighed against, is for, on average, ten tropical storms to form each year, and for six of those to develop into hurricanes of varying intensity.

A tropical storm gains hurricane status when its sustained winds reach 63 knots or more. Hurricanes are rated by intensity on a scale from one to five, with category 3,4 and 5 hurricanes being classified as ?intense? storms. These types of hurricanes, with sustained winds greater than 95 knots, are often destructive and deadly if they make landfall.

Tropical Storm Risk is a venture developed from a Government sponsored initiative that, from 1998 to 2000, was focused on predicting tropical cyclone activity. It now partners with insurance brokerage Benfield, insurance group Royal & SunAlliance and claims management company Crawford and Company, as well as working with climate physicists, meteorologists and statisticians from the University College London.

TSR tracks potential storm activity, and the chance of landfall for storms that develop, in the Atlantic and Pacific.