Less bang from the lower Canada buck
TORONTO (Reuters) — The Canadian dollar's fall to a four-year low last month should make Canada's exports more attractive to US customers, but the plunge in the economy south of the border makes a big wave of fresh orders unlikely.
The US slowdown is more bad news for Canadian companies that were severely battered last year when the currency soared above the US dollar for the first time in more than 30 years and priced some Canadian goods out of the US market.
"The situation is that we are in unchartered territory as far as the global economy and the US economy are concerned," said Elvis Picardo, analyst at Global Securities.
"Under normal circumstances you would really expect a steep decline in the Canadian dollar like we've seen to benefit our exporters tremendously, but not in these times."
The loonie fell to C$1.3019 to the US dollar, or 76.81 US cents, in October, before rebounding a bit to end this past week at C$1.2255 to the US dollar, or 81.60 U.S. cents.
Compare that to late 2007 when it was worth US$1.1039, which valued a US dollar at 90.59 Canadian cents, and it's no wonder Canadian exporters are hoping for a big pick-up in US demand.
But with the economy in the United States, Canada's biggest trade partner by far, widely expected to slide into a recession — if it isn't there already — the idea that US companies are going to go on a cross-border spending spree may be wishful thinking.
Some Canadian firms that rely heavily on exports to the United States are auto parts makers Magna International and Linamar Corp as well as lumber firms West Fraser Timber Co and Canfor Corp.
Shares of each of these companies have fallen hard this year, led by Linamar's 70 percent skid and Magna's 58 percent drop.
The Toronto Stock Exchange's main index is down 34.5 percent on the year.
For the week, the S&P/TSX composite index was down 5.6 percent at 9,055.96.
Just this past week Canada's industry minister said he met with the heads of the country's automakers, which want emergency government funding as they struggle with the global credit crunch and the downturn in the US market, which is their biggest.
The Bank of Canada expects the United States to slide into a recession, and that spectre haunts many of the world's big economies.
And in tough times there is likely to be less demand for new houses, and the lumber used to build them, and less demand for cars and car parts.
The Bank of Canada's latest forecast sees Canadian exports falling 1.5 percent in 2008, compared with the 1.1 percent drop it forecast in July. For 2009, it expects exports to slide 0.6 percent whereas it previously expected no change.
Recent data shows exports fell 1.6 percent in August from July because of a 9.7 percent skid in energy prices. Still, the central bank said exporters will get some relief because of the loonie's slide.
"It is not a complete offset of the lost income, if you will, from the decline in terms of trade that have been principally driven by the fall in commodity prices," Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said recently.