Wall Street looks to data for clues
NEW YORK — Wall Street will wade through a slew of fresh economic data in the coming week as it strives to determine how well the economy is holding up and whether the surge in stocks of the past few months can be sustained through the final weeks of the year.One area of nearly universal focus will be Tuesday’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate setting Open Market Committee. While Wall Street generally expects the FOMC to leave short-term interest rates at 5.25 percent, investors will pore over the statement that follows the meeting to glean a sense of when the central bank might lower rates. Since 2004, the central bank raised rates 17 straight times before leaving them unchanged at its last three meetings.
The Fed, ever vigilant about inflation, has been trying to engineer a soft landing for the economy. It has tried to apply the brakes to economic growth through higher rates without cooling growth too quickly and pushing the economy into recession. A strong employment report released Friday for November, though viewed largely as good news, damped some hopes that the Fed might be forced sooner than later to lower rates.
The report helped send stocks higher last week, however, with the Dow Jones Industrial average rising 0.93 percent, the Standard & Poor’s increasing 0.94 percent and the Nasdaq composite index advancing 1.00 percent.
Whether the Fed can pull off the delicate balancing act of gradually slowing the economy remains to be seen, though many on Wall Street remain optimistic.
Beyond the Fed meeting, investors will be looking at retail sales figures for November to determine whether consumers are spending as much as hoped this holiday season. Reports from individual retailers have been mixed, making the government report all the more important.
Wall Street will receive reports from some of its own this week. Profits at brokerages are expected to be up sharply following the gains in stocks this year and a record level of mergers, which bring in big fees. Bear Stearns Cos., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Lehman Brothers Holdings report results in the coming week.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and other key members of the administration economic team head to China to press for economic reforms aimed at loosening restrictions on currency and trade.
Wall Street will be focused on the Fed’s policy statement Tuesday, but will also hear from the Commerce Department. The agency is expected to release figures on the nation’s trade deficit for October.
On Wednesday, the department plans to release figures on November retail sales as well as October business inventories.
Also due that day is a weekly report on crude inventories from the Energy Department.
Thursday brings figures from the Commerce Department on import and export prices.
Friday is expected to be busier than usual with release of the November consumer price index, the key measure of inflation. Investors have been keeping a close watch on inflation as they try to determine the Fed’s next move.
The Fed also weighs in at the end of the week with figures on industrial production and capacity utilisation for November. The central bank examines the figures for an increase in utilisation, which could add to inflationary pressures.
Tuesday brings a report from Goldman Sachs on its fiscal fourth quarter. Wall Street predicts the brokerage will report earnings of $5.94 per share.
The stock closed on Friday at $205.10 and has traded between $124.23 and $205.26 in the past 52 weeks.
The day also brings a third-quarter earnings report from Best Buy Co. The electronics retailer is expected to report a profit of 35 cents per share. The stock, which closed Friday at $53.13, has traded between $42.75 and $59.50 in the past 52 weeks.
On Thursday, Wall Street expects Bear Stearns to report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings of $3.32 per share. The stock, which has traded between $109.64 and $160.53 in the past 52 weeks, closed Friday at $158.88.
Lehman Brothers also plans to report its fiscal fourth-quarter results and is expected to report earnings of $1.66 per share. The stock has traded between $58.37 and $78.89 in the past 52 weeks. It ended Friday at $77.03.
Also due that day is a report from warehouse retail chain Costco Wholesale Corp. The company is seen as reporting earnings of 50 cents per share for its fiscal first quarter. The stock, which closed Friday at $53.69, has traded between $46 and $57.94 in the past 52 weeks.
