Independent candidates would stand little chance in a General Election in the face of the island’s entrenched political divide, according to several past contenders.

Voter discontent that boosted hopes for independents prior to the 2012 election has given way to party affiliations favoured by Bermuda’s electoral system, former loner candidate Phil Perinchief said.

Mr Perinchief, who hasn’t ruled out throwing his hat in the ring again, spoke to The Royal Gazette on the eve of what many expect to be the day of reckoning — when Michael Dunkley sets a polling date ahead of tomorrow’s no-confidence motion in the House. “Bermuda is far too finely polarised around race and class lines, and historical scars and the concomitant political power that comes with the successful outcome of a General Election, for people to risk gambling their one crucial vote for an independent candidate — no matter how deserving and worthwhile they may be,” Mr Perinchief said.

That view was shared by Stuart Hayward, the standout independent who in 1989 ousted the UBP’s Clarence James from the strong seat of Pembroke West Central. “While I have always thought the island would benefit from debate and decisions grounded in reason and independent thinking, as does Jersey in the Channel Isles, Bermuda is so highly politically polarised, and the parties so close numerically, that getting elected would be an uphill climb for almost any independent candidate,” Mr Hayward said.

Similar assessments came from David Sullivan, the hopeful in the 2011 Devonshire South Central by-election, and another former independent who requested to remain unnamed.

And while Charles Swan, the former UBP MP who also went alone into the 2012 fray, doesn’t think that “now is any different from 2012”, he does not see much independent hope in 2017. However, Mr Perinchief cautioned against blaming the Westminster System for partisan divisions.

“Unless and until politically backward Bermuda relinquishes the undemocratic electoral system of ‘first-past-the-post’ in favour of an appropriate island-wide proportional representation voting system, the benefit of political diversity and edifying viewpoints will not be truly enjoyed by those who suffer, and suffocate, under the narrow polarisation of the two-party system,” he said.

Confronted with “less than sterling” candidates, voters struggle between “voting for them or voting at all”, while the parties “know this dilemma and nevertheless unabashedly expect, or even demand, your vote”.

Independents gained the legislature in force after last month’s elections in the Cayman Islands — but Mr Perinchief said the jurisdiction had “less of a problem” with partisan baggage.

An anonymous hopeful from the 2012 campaign said the last General Election “had the best window for independents running: dissatisfaction with the PLP, along with, while not necessarily trust in the One Bermuda Alliance, a lot of swing voters”.

“Now it’s very polarised. The people dissatisfied in 2012 will come back and vote PLP.”

The contender agreed that the first-past-the-post system propped up the party divide — suggesting systems such as Wales or Scotland’s allowed for better independent representation.

“I don’t think we should see independents running as a zero-sum game, however.

“They can introduce policy ideas and give additional voices.”

Mr Sullivan sees fertile territory for going it alone when voters are fed up with the incumbents, and there is “a less than appropriate challenge from the opposing party”.

“Now, within the constituencies, we don’t have dislike of the incumbents. What we have is support almost at 50-50.

“PLP constituencies like their candidates; OBA constituencies like theirs. We don’t have that fertile ground for independents to present themselves.

“What independent candidates can do, particularly in marginal constituencies, is become the spoiler in a situation where anybody can scoop up votes from one or the other. Independents should be thinking long and hard about what they are offering. I don’t see potential for them winning, just potential for them spoiling.”

Bermudian voters have not embraced independents reappearing since the start of party politics, Mr Sullivan said.

“Even having two independents in the House with Shawn Crockwell and Mark Pettingill makes the populace uncomfortable. I believe they have abused their positions as MPs by not respecting the wishes of the people who put them there.”

Jonathan Starling, who “enjoyed contesting the 2012 General Election”, has firmly declined running again.

“I encourage everyone to ensure they are registered, and to actually go and vote.

“And I also salute all the candidates that are willing to put their names forward, be they party or independents. It can be a difficult and punishing job. However, it can also be extremely rewarding and is fundamental to our democratic process.”

Agreed Charles Swan: “It takes a brave and energetic soul to do it, and there are people out there who can do it — but I just don’t think it will happen.”