<Bz66>European demand drives up Carnival's profits
NEW YORK (Bloomberg) — Carnival Corp., the world’s largest cruise operator, said fourth-quarter profit rose 24 percent, beating its forecast, on demand for European trips.Net income for the three months ended November 30 climbed to $416 million, or 51 cents a share, from $336 million, or 41 cents, a year earlier, Miami-based Carnival said yesterday in a statement. Revenue increased 9.2 percent to $2.81 billion.
Earnings were helped by higher ticket prices for European voyages and a 5.5 percent increase in capacity, primarily from the introduction of three new ships this year. Higher demand and prices for European and other non-Caribbean trips will help overcome weakness in the Caribbean in the first half of 2007.
“Prices appear to have stabilised in the Caribbean and they are still getting high prices in other major destinations such as Europe and Alaska,” said Chris Scheuer, who helps manage $67.5 billion in assets, including Carnival shares, at Thrivent Investment Management in Appleton, Wisconsin. “Things don’t appear to be getting any worse.”
Shares of Carnival, which operates the Carnival Cruise Lines, Princess, Holland America and Cunard lines, gained $1.02, or 2.1 percent, to $49.07 as of 12.02 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the biggest gain in two months.
Carnival shares are down 10 percent this year before today. Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., the world’s second-largest cruise operator, has fallen 11 percent in 2006.
Results beat Carnival’s fourth-quarter profit forecast of 46 cents to 48 cents a share. Analysts expected earnings of 47 cents on sales of $2.74 billion, according to the average analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Carnival expects first-quarter per-share profit of 33 cents to 35 cents. The average estimate, excluding some costs, of four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg is 35 cents. Carnival predicted annual earnings of $2.90 to $3.10, while analysts expect profit, excluding some items, of $3.09, according to Bloomberg.
The company, which operates 81 ships under 12 lines with approximately 144,000 beds, has 19 new vessels scheduled to begin sailing by 2010. The company is focusing on adding new vessels to its Italian Costa Cruises and German AIDA Cruises to tap into a growing European cruise market.
Caribbean prices were down this year because of hurricane fears and a “challenging economic environment” in North America, chief executive officer Micky Arison said in the statement. More than 40 percent of Carnival’s business comes from the Caribbean, according to Michael Savner, an analyst at Banc of America Securities.
European cruise brands, such as Costa and AIDA, and North American brand cruises in Europe and Alaska were strong in 2006 and will outperform Caribbean voyages heading into 2007, Arison said.
Carnival has lowered prices for first-quarter Caribbean cruises, especially trips lasting three to five nights, Robert LaFleur, an analyst at Susquehanna Financial Group in Stamford, Connecticut, said December 19. Royal Caribbean in October said first-quarter cruise reservations and prices are slightly down.
The Caribbean weakness stems from economic factors; those most likely to take short-term cruises are affected by higher gasoline prices and interest rates, said LaFleur. There is also a lingering fear of hurricanes and a spate of negative news such as people falling off ships and getting sick onboard, he said.
Carnival said full-year profit increased 1.2 percent to $2.28 billion, or $2.77 a share, more than the company’s forecast of as much as $2.73 a share. Three analysts, on average, estimated $2.71, according to the Bloomberg survey.
Of 22 analysts covering Carnival in the past year, 10 rate the stock “buy,” 11 say “hold” and one advocates selling. Before today, Carnival’s profit has exceeded analysts’ estimates in 10 of the past 11 quarters.
