PARIS (Reuters) — French fury at the EU trade chief over his proposed farms policy concessions in world trade talks reflects the enormous economic stakes for Paris but is partly tactical, analysts say. From President Jacques Chirac downwards, French officials have accused EU trade commissioner Peter Mandelson of giving too much ground in World Trade Organisation negotiations to Europe’s competitors, notably the United States.Since offering greater access to EU markets, Mandelson has traded barbs with Paris and warned that the 25-nation bloc must offer more on farms policy if it is to secure a wider deal at a WTO summit in Hong Kong in December.

“You should not underestimate the tactical nature of the French approach,” said Zaki Laidi, professor at the Sciences Po institute in Paris.

“There are the core issues, there is the posturing and there are the negotiations. France is increasing the pressure on Mandelson so that he does not make too many concessions.

“On the core issues, there is the idea that agriculture is not an activity like any other and that France benefits from the (current) system. That comes on top of what I call the Iraq syndrome ... resisting the Anglo-Saxons or the Americans.”

Farms and agri-business account for 4.5 percent of French gross domestic product, $34 billion in exports (2002) and French farmers account for almost a quarter of EU agricultural output.

Having already clashed with British Prime Minister Tony Blair over farms subsidies this year, a dispute that sank a deal on the EU’s long term budget, Chirac appears in no mood to go beyond reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy agreed in 2002. “It is now time for (Europe’s) partners to make equivalent proposals in a spirit of balance and reciprocity, in the agricultural field as well as industry and services,” he wrote in an article published across the bloc on Wednesday.

“I think he will be inflexible and negotiate nothing,” said Christophe Barbier, deputy editor of the L’Express news weekly.

“It’s not been said as such, but I get the impression that if the WTO summit in Hong Kong fails, that will not pose a problem for the French authorities.”

The row reminds some observers of French protests at a 1993 deal between the European Community and United States on grain trade. France accused Brussels then of exceeding its mandate and forced a renegotiation that produced concessions.

But few analysts expect France to “go nuclear” this time and veto a deal, if only because France wants concessions on industry and services too.

“It would be difficult for France to isolate itself to that extent, so she is exerting pressure for the moment. But she is rather alone, and that’s the problem,” said Dominique Moisi of the French Institute of International Relations.

“What France can gain is, essentially, time,” said Sylvie Matelly, economist at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations in Paris.

“But if one looks at what happened in the textiles sector, I’m not very optimistic,” she said. “Give oneself time, OK. But to do what? That’s the question.” At the heart of the matter is the defence of a sector that plays a key role in the French economy.

“France is the only European country to have an agricultural sector that is capable of competing in the major world markets ... so what’s at stake for France is enormous.

“A badly negotiated opening of markets would have a cost that is much higher than what France would gain from increased openness” in world trade in general, she added.

France is the only EU nation among the top five world producers of milk, wheat, sugar beet and potatoes. Despite the stakes, argued Laidi, France will not provoke an all-out crisis: “I think France is protecting herself because she knows that if there’s a (world trade) deal, she will not be able to say ‘No’.

“Because she knows she won’t be able to use this type of nuclear weapon after the event, she has an interest in locking things down as much as possible beforehand.”