HARARE (Reuters) — President Robert Mugabe faces new pressure from Zimbabwe’s worsening economic crisis, which is now deeply felt in his rural strongholds and is testing the loyalty of security forces that have rallied behind him, analysts said. Political analysts say a gripping eight-year recession — more than opposition protests — is the most potent threat to Mugabe’s 27-year rule and that current work boycotts by angry employees could ignite wider and spontaneous street protests.

Zimbabweans last week woke up to increases of up to 200 percent in the price of consumer goods, further worsening the plight of citizens grappling with the world’s highest inflation rate of 1,281 percent and a jobless rate above 80 percent.

The economic crisis has so far largely hit urban centres but analysts said it was now being felt in rural areas where Mugabe’s ruling party has traditionally enjoyed loyal support.

Rural Zimbabweans — who endured the country’s 1970s bloody liberation war — and benefit from subsidised grain, agriculture inputs and state food handouts, have consistently voted for ZANU-PF in past national elections. “I have no doubt people in the rural areas are feeling more pain and hardship. There is disenchantment there but I don’t think to an extent where we can begin to talk of Mugabe losing grip, but it gives him plenty to worry about,” said John Makumbe, a political commentator and critic of Mugabe.

Analysts said rural Zimbabweans were bombarded by ZANU-PF propaganda and had no access to private media while some were “eternally thankful” for the land given to them under Mugabe’s programme of seizing land from white commercial farmers. It is that land reform programme which the West says is partly to blame for Zimbabwe’s fiscal woes. Mugabe says Western sanctions have undermined his country’s economy.

Amid the soaring prices, and shortages of foreign currency, fuel and food, doctors and nurses have been joined by teachers and university lecturers striking for higher pay. Analysts say the loyalty of security forces was also now being severely tested. While senior officials in the army, police and the intelligence, most of whom fought white rule alongside Mugabe, were unwavering in their support for the veteran leader, analysts say junior officers were disenchanted.

The government quietly raised salaries for the forces last month but analysts said with a junior army officer now getting a gross monthly pay of Z$140,000 ($560) — far below the Z$440,000 that a consumer watchdog said an average family needed for food only — more tense moments lay ahead for Mugabe. The Zimbabwe dollar is officially pegged at 250 to one US unit but fetches as much as 5,000 on the black market. “The security forces have awakened to the reality of the economic crisis and are beginning to question and try to locate the source of their misery,” said Eldred Masunungure, a University of Zimbabwe political science lecturer. “The big question is whether they are crossing the bridge to a more determined posture to show their displeasure.”

Mugabe has used state security forces to keep opponents at bay, appointing senior military officers to strategic government posts like the state railway firm, the national grain agency and to lead a programme to revive agriculture. The veteran leader has outflanked his opponents in the last seven years and analysts said although the opposition was too divided and weak to pose a serious challenge, the economic crisis was hitting his leadership as the succession issue continued to tear at his ZANU-PF party.

Mugabe plans to extend his rule by two more years when his current term ends in 2008. Some senior party officials are opposed to the plan, but he is seen getting his way, thanks to an elaborate patronage system that ensures loyalty.

“Certainly Mugabe is weaker at this stage, both from the economic crisis and events in his party but I believe he has many cards up his sleeve and will survive,” Masunungure said.