insurance to study one of Mother Nature's disastrous forces, the hurricane.

Scientific studies are produced by a team of experts from the Ferry Reach Bio Station along with experts from abroad, inclduign William Gray, Professor of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Christopher W. Landsea, Meteorologist from Miami, Florida John Knaff, Post-doctoral Research Associate along with Dr. Paul Mielke, Jr. and Dr.Kenneth Berry, both Professors of Statistics.

This team published an article early in April this year depicting "a year of expected average hurricane activity''. The forecast was based on ongoing research by the authors, together with meteorological information available through March, 1998.

Dr. Tony Knap, director of the Bermuda Bio Station for Research, started (RPI) five years ago by seeking funding for studies from some of the Island's leading reinsurance companies.

In return the programme brings frontline hurricane researchers and their data to the executive staff of the participating reinsurance companies.

Mid Ocean Reinsurance professionals Jeremy Hindle, vice president & underwriter (International) and Gregory Hendrick, vice President & underwriter (Americas), explained: "The objective of (RPI) is to link scientific information to businesses to produce answers to international questions.'' "Scientist have been trying to predict Mother Nature and understand her forces for thousands of years,'' continued Mr. Hindle.

In the past, reinsurers calculated the probability of disasters based on the frequency of events over the past 150 years.

With chemistry techniques going back thousands of years, scientists can now analyse hurricanes much further back.

"Satellites, during the past fifty years, have provided reliable and tangible information to the insurance/reinsurance business,'' Mr. Hendrick said.

Global information regarding weather theory is of particular interest to Mr.

Hindle whose work in reinsurance is international. "I'm always looking at the big global picture,'' he said.

Mr. Hendrick said the April, 1998 forecast prediction compiled by Dr. Gray's team's main message was: "We project that total season activity will include ten named storms (average is 9.3), 50 named storms (average is 47), 6 hurricanes (average is 5.8), 20 hurricane days (average is 24), 2 intense (category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average 2.3), 4 intense hurricane days (average is 4.7) and a hurricane destruction potential of 65 (average is 71).

"Whereas net 1998 tropical cyclone activity is expected to be about 95 percent of the long term average, condition this year should be distinctively more active than 1997 but less active than the very busy hurricane seasons of 1995 and 1996.

"This early April prediction indicates a greater possibility of a slightly more active season than did our early December (1997) forecast of 1998 hurricane activity.

"An important element entering this April forecast update is more evidence that the very strong 1997-1998 El Nino will be largely dissipated by the start of the (climatologically) active part of the hurricane season (i.e.,mid-August).

Mr. Hindle elaborated about El Nino in simple terms. "It is a body of extremely warm water in the Pacific warmed by the Equator sun that moves east and west. As it moves east it bestows what we call the El Nino effect. It normally arrives at Peru at Christmas and they refer to it there as the Christ child.

"When it moves west toward the Phillipines it is referred to as La Nina. The global impact of this shuts down hurricane sea in the Atlantic. In fact, Dr.

Gray and his team have said El Nino will be largely dissipated by the start of the active part of hurricane season (i.e., mid-August '98).'' The jobs of the reinsurance business is raising capital in equity markets. Mr.

Hendrick explained that it takes "mega capital'' to build investments from premiums that might be called in from the US and particularly Florida. Our company currently has the ability to pay $1.4 billion against claims.

Reducing risk creates most of the global exposure. You have that very large land mass and it is only a matter of chance when and if a hurricane strikes leaving devastation in it's path.'' Mr. Hindle concluded: "In 1965 - 1974 there were no global losses. In 1973-1987 there were no global losses. In 1987-1992, there were global losses.

In 1992-1998, there were no global losses.

"In the final analysis you could say we reinsurers are like firemen without water or helmets squelching infrequent fires, we only know that hurricane frequency is down globally yet we have to be prepared for any big hits.'' HURRICANES HUR