The United Bermuda Party is heading for victory at the next election believes leader Grant Gibbons ? despite polls which indicate the ruling Progressive Labour Party is still ahead.

The most recent poll of 403 people by Walton Brown?s Research Innovation found 33.6 percent would vote PLP and 29.1 percent would vote UBP if there was an election tomorrow, while there was a margin of error of less than five percent.

However Dr. Gibbons said polls could be misleading. ?What Walton Brown?s polls tell us is we are statistically in a dead heat with the PLP but there is a 40 percent unknown.

?You can?t make a predication reliably with a 40 percent unknown. We run our own polls, we have a policy of not disclosing those, but they are certainly encouraging.?

He said the UBP had caught up a lot of ground in the last election, regaining four of the six percent of the vote it lost in 1998. Now with 48 percent of the vote Dr. Gibbons believes his party is capable of making the final leap next time around.

?Given the performance of the Government so far and the endless scandals and sweetheart deals and mismanagement that have characterised this Government I would be very surprised if we didn?t win the next election.

?We have been effective in holding the Government?s feet to the fire, on everything from pay-to-play to the Bermuda Housing Corporation. But we have also been effective in putting forward alternative approaches like our housing plan and plan for seniors.?

Dr. Gibbons also believes the plan to set up a ministry of Race Relations and Economic Opportunity will prove a vote winner as will ?good Government? legislation such as a whistleblower?s act and a freedom of information act. But he said the bread and butter issues of housing, seniors and education could prove the real election battleground.

?Education is critical for Bermuda?s success going forward and critical for fairness and opportunity. It is apparent to everybody you cannot have a 50 percent or less than 50 percent graduation rate in the public school system and believe young Bermudians are going to be able to participate in this economy going forward.

?It is an absolute disgrace that in the public system barely 50 percent of our secondary students are graduating. Clearly there needs to be much more accountability. We have made a number of suggestions about putting more responsibility at the individual school level and holding teachers and principals accountable and being much more transparent in terms of results for individual schools.?

Technical education and apprenticeship training will also be beefed up.

Asked why the UBP had lost power in 1998 Dr. Gibbons said most voters felt the party was too busy fighting among themselves.

?Certainly there were too many personal agendas going on within the United Bermuda Party. When Sir John Swan stepped down in 1995 the UBP was in a shambles, I think the community really said how can you focus on issues important to us if you are still so busy fighting internally??

The independence debate and the McDonalds row also split the party. Asked what had gone wrong last time around Dr. Gibbons said: ?I think we did very well in 2003.

?If you look at elections in a lot of other places it is rare to see a situation where a Government in as long as the United Bermuda Party was, coming back quickly after just one election.

?The 2003 election was the first in four or five elections where the United Bermuda Party actually gained a percentage of the popular vote.?

He said 1998 saw a big swing with the PLP picking up eight percent of the vote.

?They had a large mandate, a lot of seats and a lot of goodwill. People felt ?finally now we have a Government which has a sense of direction?. I think everybody was behind Jennifer Smith at the time. The sad thing is that here we are seven years later and you have even their own supporters embarrassed or annoyed at the opportunity which was squandered. Clearly in 2003 there was still a sufficient number of voters who felt they deserved a second chance.

?The United Bermuda Party had 30 years, ?so we will give you another chance to not only perform but address some of the concerns about scandal and self serving policies?. That was the feeling. But clearly the majority of the country weren?t benefiting but a select few were.?

Last time around the election was tight and the UBP could have won power if 75 people had voted differently in six constituencies. He said the UBP will continue its policy of putting some of its better candidates in marginal seats. ?There will be changes in a number of seats. We will put forward candidates we believe have the best chance of winning. We did that last time. David Dodwell fought a very tough election up there in Southampton.?

Michael Dunkley was also not put in an easy seat said Dr. Gibbons however the policy backfired with Erwin Adderley and Allan Marshall who were turfed out of parliament. Asked if John Barritt would be moved out of his stronghold of Devonshire South Central Dr. Gibbons hinted Mr. Barritt could be put up against Glenn Blakeney in Devonshire North Central. ?I think it is clear Glenn Blakeney is going to be very shaky up there in Constituency 13. He has not provided the kind of support, particularly in the area of Mary Victoria and Alexandria Roads.

?He has been missing in action when it comes to some of the issues of Mr. DeVent putting up housing there.?

Another flashpoint will be Dale Butler?s Warwick seat where Gina Spence Farmer will be flying the flag for the UBP, said Dr. Gibbons.