The Progressive Labour Party's reaction to The Royal Gazette's latest poll is noteworthy for two things.

One is its sheer predictability. When news from a poll is not as good as a politician might like, the knee-jerk reaction is to attack the methodology. That is as true for the United Bermuda Party as it is for the PLP.

The second is the hysterical tone of the response. The Royal Gazette has been using Research.bm's service since early 2008 and the PLP has generally accepted the results. The only exception was over a technical matter which this newspaper accepted and as a result, made changes.

But Research.bm uses the same approach to polling as all other local pollsters have done for at least a decade. Typically the sample of people used is around 400 people and that group is weighted to match the demographics of the Island based on the best available statistics. For political polling that means using registered voters based on the 2000 Census.

That is how Sen. Walton Brown, whom The Royal Gazette employed as a pollster until 2007, conducted his polls, and that is what Research.bm does.

It is true that the further you get away from a Census period, the harder it gets to apply the available statistics. But the Census remains the most reliable set of statistics. Adjusting statistics to match what might be happening is dangerous and could lead to guessing; not an ideal approach to a supposedly scientific poll.

No one says that polls are exact, which is why they contain margins of error. But to attack a poll for using the same basic methodology that all pollsters have been using in Bermuda for at least two decades is dangerous and wrong.

It does, however, have the dubious benefit of misdirecting the public from the actual information in the poll.

What The Royal Gazette/Research.bm poll shows is this: The popularity of the Progressive Labour Party and Premier Dr. Ewart Brown have improved somewhat since midyear, when the last poll was conducted as memories of the Uighur controversy and the gambling fiasco fade. This was the same result as the PLP poll released a week earlier. The difference was one of degree.

And both polls showed the popularity of the Opposition United Bermuda Party and its leader Kim Swan have plummeted as a result of the party's split and continuing squabbles.

The Research.bm polling, which did indeed ask a different question from the Progressive Labour Party poll, suggests that the third party being formed by three UBP MPs could well be viable. But the polling, and today's survey of the favourability of various MPs, suggests they have a long way to go.

It is also interesting to note that of the MPs polled – and it was by no means an inclusive list – Dale Butler and Paula Cox remain far and away the most popular politicians on the Island, in large part because they appeal to a broad cross section of the community.

As for the three dissident ex-UBP MPs, none has great name recognition, which in some ways is unsurprising, but again suggests that they have work to do.

What the Research.bm poll really demonstrates – and this may seem self-evident – is that Bermuda politics is in a state of flux not seen for at least a decade.

With more than 30 percent of voters saying they are undecided, this is a period in which the potential is there for Bermuda politics to be transformed.