Back off the mat
A week is a long time in politics, said British Prime Minister Harold Wilson. And so is 24 hours, or at least the 24 hours or so that have just passed. By the same token the last 24 hours have shown that Premier Dr. Ewart Brown is the dominant figure in Bermuda politics – even in the waning months of his tenure – because he can pull rabbits out of his hat when he most needs them.
On Wednesday night, Dr. Brown's Government lost a second House of Assembly vote in nine months. The first was the cruise ship gambling law, which he tried to sneak through, only to be rebuffed by his own backbench. Technically, that was a conscience vote, but it was unquestionably Dr. Brown's bill.
Soon after, Elvin James and Terry Lister became the second and third Ministers to resign over his leadership in matter of weeks, following the departure of Dale Butler over the Uighurs. Those would be body blows for most Government leaders, but Dr. Brown sailed on, albeit in part because he renewed his promise to go in October this year.
Then on Wednesday, Dr. Brown brought forward his bill to make all Cabinet Members full time and to pay them as such.
Whether the intention was to discredit Finance Minister Paula Cox by forcing her to take a raise in the middle of a recession or not, that would have been the result, but Ms Cox was canny enough to reject the raise, or bait, in advance. That did not stop MPs from questioning the timing of the bill, and in the absence of an answer, Randy Horton and Wayne Perinchief, joined most Opposition MPs in voting against it and defeating it. It was notable as well that several Government MPs were absent, although it cannot be said that they were all against the bill.
Still, it would have been easy to see this defeat as a clear demonstration of the limits of Dr. Brown's power and proof of his lame duck status. But if opponents of Dr. Brown should have learned anything over the last four years, it is never to count him out.
And yesterday, when it became clear that former United Bermuda Party Leader Wayne Furbert would cross the floor and join the PLP, it might also seem that Dr. Brown had pulled another rabbit out of a hat. At the very least, it would appear to shore up his majority in the House, with Mr. Furbert (who has mainly voted with the PLP lately) making up for the lack of support from Mr. Horton, Mr. Perinchief and other potential rebels.
But there may be some risk as well. It's not clear what reward Mr. Furbert has been offered, if any. But some PLP MPs are already dubious about his move and if he was to be given the PLP candidacy in Hamilton West or a Cabinet post, the grumbling may grow.
For Mr. Furbert, there are also risks. The last UBP MP to cross the floor was Grace Bell and she got absolutely nothing for her decision. The same may happen to Mr. Furbert.
To give him the benefit of the doubt, Mr. Furbert may well have had a genuine change of heart. But such a change would amount to a repudiation of his entire political career, and Mr. Furbert's desire to reform Bermuda politics will not sit easily with Dr. Brown's scorched earth version of politics.
The more cynical will see Mr. Furbert's move as a last gasp attempt to retain his seat. Having burned his bridges with the UBP, having been apparently rejected by the Bermuda Democratic Alliance and with little chance of retaining his seat as an Independent, Mr. Furbert has joined the party he has opposed his whole life in the hope that he will be able to run in the seat under the PLP banner. Or so the cynics will say.
The truth may lie somewhere in the middle. Nor is it clear whether this move will genuinely shore up Dr. Brown. But what is certain is that the Premier, having suffered one knockdown, has come off the mat ready to fight on.