Voter apathy
The Progressive Labour Party has some reason to be pleased that Michael Weeks was re-elected with a great deal of ease – and increased his party's share of the vote in Thursday's Pembroke East Central by-election.
Given that Mr. Weeks, a relative political unknown, had very little time to canvass in a very short campaign, he did well. He was assisted by the fact that this constituency may well be the safest PLP seat on the Island and that there were no major controversies in the constituency.
Any hopes that the United Bermuda Party may have had that it could capitalise on the unpopularity in the polls of Premier Dr. Ewart Brown, or that it could convince unhappy PLP supporters to send the Government a message – or at least remind the party not to take its strongholds for granted – by voting for the Opposition, came to nothing.
Indeed, the UBP's continued failure to gain traction from the Premier's unpopularity or to exploit the divisions within the PLP over controversies like the cruise ship gaming bill and the Uighurs will raise more questions about its viability.
That's not to say that the PLP should take too much encouragement from the result either.
To be sure, voter turnout in by-elections is always lower than it is in general elections, and the timing of this election in the school holidays in August was also going to reduce the number of voters too, especially in a safe seat where the result was never really in doubt.
However a 39 percent turnout should be worrying; six in ten voters, the vast majority of them PLP supporters, did not vote and the PLP's analysts must be concerned as to why. They weren't all on vacation.
Was it voter apathy combined with the factors cited above? Or was this in fact a protest vote in which traditional PLP voters put in their protest by simply not going to the polls?
The answer is that it was probably a bit of both. But leaving aside voter apathy and so forth, the PLP needs to consider what ramifications low turnout might have in a more closely contested election. And beyond that, voters may well be signaling their disillusionment with the whole political process.
Having said that, polls have consistently shown that PLP supporters tend to be extremely loyal to the party even when they don't like the leader, and that seems to have been borne out in this by-election. It might be possible to say that in that case, it does not matter who the leader is. But it also suggests that the PLP would be well nigh unbeatable if it had a popular leader intent on healing divisions, both within the party and through the Island.
Crime all the time
Both candidates in the by-election said that the most important issue during canvassing was crime.
That’s not surprising. Pembroke East has been hit harder by gang-related crime than almost any other area. Many of Mr. Weeks’ ideas for mobilising the community are good, and worth trying. The great challenge for this kind of grassroots activity is sustaining the effort.
At the same time, the Government has been all too keen to shifting responsibility for crime to the Police and the Governor. Regardless of what responsibility it does not have for detecting and prosecuting crime, the Government has full responsibility for deterring crime (through legislation), for funding the fight against crime (through the Budget) and, most importantly, for tackling the causes of crime (through social programmes, rehabilitation and education). In the latter area, despite efforts like the laudable Mirrors Programme, the record is patchy. And it is here that Mr. Weeks and his colleagues on both sides of the House of Assembly need to devote their attention.