The impact of a global or US recession on Bermuda's employment market could be wide-reaching, depending on the extent of the economic downturn.

That is according to Douglas Soares, partner at employment services firm Expertise Ltd., who reckons a short-lived recession is likely to have a minimal effect on the Island's jobs market, but a severe and lengthy downturn would threaten the security of some positions.

Talk of a worldwide recession has been rife following the economic turmoils the US has endured over the past few months, with many experts predicting it is only a matter of time before it takes effect.

Mr. Soares believes the extent to which each employee is impacted will depend substantially on the area of the economy in which they work, with tourism among one of the first to suffer in the event of a recession.

"Most affected by a recession will be those who occupy jobs that depend on the tourism industry," he said.

"Depending on the degree to which visitor arrivals drop during a recession, hotels and restaurants may be faced with reducing their workforce as the only way to significantly reduce costs.

"Job losses in hotels and restaurants are likely to impact non-Bermudians more than Bermudians simply because that sector tends to employ a large number of work permit holders at all levels. Bermudians feeling the pinch as a result of a downturn in tourism are likely to be taxi drivers, as well as those employed in the retail sector."

Meanwhile, construction is another industry which could be hit should a recession strike, according to Mr. Soares.

"A recession is also likely to threaten the job security of those working in the construction industry," he said.

"While a large number of government projects may help fuel this industry through a recession, many privately funded projects are likely to progress more slowly or simply put on hold.

"But, like the hospitality industry, there are a large number of work permit holders in construction so non-Bermudians are most likely to lose jobs.

"Many would argue that a relatively mild economic downturn may be a good thing, but one has to be careful what you wish for because a prolonged recession would almost certainly threaten the job security of many Bermudians employed in this sector."

But, Mr. Soares added, those working in the international business sector are likely to fare better than those employed in other sectors of the economy.

"Employers feeling the squeeze are likely to institute hiring and pay freezes," he said.

"But international companies will probably not resort to cutting jobs unless the economic downturn was deep and prolonged.

However, he sounded a note of caution for international business sector employees to be wary of their job security due to fierce global competition.

"The high and rapidly rising cost of doing business in Bermuda has for a long time caused international business leaders to have a cautious eye on the future," he said. "Exporting jobs to other locations is happening frequently now simply because, with the click of a mouse, work can be performed more cost effectively in other jurisdictions.

"So aside from the talk of a recession, international business leaders are concerned about Bermuda's high and escalating rate of inflation.

"We have to remember that many international companies with a significant physical presence in Bermuda can derive the benefits of being headquartered in a low-tax jurisdiction without employing a large local workforce."