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BERMUDA | RSS PODCAST

DNA expert gives presentation on local statistics

Bermuda's small size and close family links are often noted but statistics generated for a new DNA database show the population is no different to the rest of the planet when it comes to the stuff that makes us all human.

Prosecutors in Bermuda's courts have been using DNA evidence for years now to convince juries that defendants can be linked to crimes by evidence at the scene such as blood, hair or skin cells.

Samples have regularly been taken from those suspected of serious crimes, such as murder. Since May of this year, the Police have also been taking DNA samples as a matter of course from persons arrested for any crime that carries prison as a punishment having been given that power under the Police and Criminal Evidence Act (PACE).

The samples are being collected from suspects at the rate of around 200 per month and, according to PACE implementation manager Mark Crampton, the more that are collected, the more likely it is that a sample will match a crime scene and help solve more crimes.

The criminal database could even help crack "cold cases".

However, when proceedings citing DNA evidence have come to court in the past, the jury has always heard an expert quote statistics from overseas relating to the likelihood of another human having the same DNA profile. For example, when Kamel Trott and Kenneth Burgess beat up fellow prisoner Dennis Robinson in Westgate in 2007, the subsequent trial heard about Robinson's bloodstains that were found on Trott's clothes.

Florida-based DNA expert Candy Zuleger told the jury that the possibility of someone else other than Robinson having the same DNA profile would be one in 160 billion in the white American population and one in 24 billion in the black American population.

The reason statistics for countries such as America have been cited is that Bermuda did not have its own "general population" database for the purpose of calculating match frequencies. That, however, is about to change. Dr. Bruce Weir, head of the Department of Bio-statistics at the University of Washington, is currently working out statistics particular to the Bermuda population. He's making his calculations based on 440 samples collected from anonymous members of the Bermuda public earlier this year – half from black people and half from white people.

Dr. Weir said the Bermuda comparative statistics are being worked out in the same manner as the FBI database in the US, and he should finish work on the project within a month. It means that local data will be available during court cases for the first time to explain to juries how many persons in a million or billion could possibly match the profile in question.

Defence lawyers have attempted to cast doubt on DNA evidence in Bermuda's courts in the past. They've claimed that overseas statistics could be unreliable due to perceived differences in the genetic make-up of Bermudians linked to the Island's small size and close family ties.

However, according to Dr. Weir, Bermuda's close links have had "essentially no effect" on his frequency calculations. He's writing a report on his findings for the Journal of Forensic Sciences, and told The Royal Gazette: "People can see that Bermuda frequencies are similar to those in other countries. That's very reassuring. I was expecting that. There's a lot of data published from around the world and it's a similar calculation. If someone describes themselves as caucasian, for example, it doesn't make a difference if they are from the US, France, or the UK. Bermudians can take comfort that the kind of numbers we see here are consistent with what we've found in other countries."

Dr. Weir visited the Island last week to give a presentation on his work to judges, prosecutors and defence lawyers.

Mr. Crampton added: "Dr. Weir's work is vital in supporting and giving credibility to estimated calculations that are produced in court for Bermuda cases. We are pleased with the enormous progress in the last couple of years with DNA."