Environment Minister Arthur Hodgson has still not decided if he will take on Jennifer Smith to become Premier and leader of the Progressive Labour Party.

Mr. Hodgson has been tipped as the strongest potential challenger to Ms Smith's leadership, although Health Minister Ewart Brown and Development, Opportunity and Government Services Minister Terry Lister have also been touted.

The possible rivals are remaining tight-lipped and it is thought that nominations will not be declared until nearer the PLP's biennial conference, which begins on October 30.

PLP sources say Mr. Hodgson could stage a strong challenge against Ms Smith, who is seen by some in the party as arrogant and out of touch with grassroots supporters.

When asked yesterday if he had decided whether to run against Ms Smith, Mr.

Hodgson said "no comment''.

A senior PLP source predicted Ms Smith would narrowly cling onto power, even though most of her MPs do not support her.

Although analysts say Ms Smith does not command the support of her MPs, the crucial battleground will be among constituency delegates who hold the largest section of the vote.

Backbencher Dale Butler said: "The Premier says she welcomes any challenge. I think it's a very healthy thing. It's almost like a referendum on her leadership.'' But he refused to say which way he will vote. "That's confidential, it's a secret ballot,'' he said.

PLP activist Rolf Commissiong said: "There is likely to be a challenge to the current leadership and Arthur Hodgson is probably the front runner. If he decides to run, he would be a very strong contender.

"Increasingly, members are coming to the conclusion that if any time is ripe for change, it is now.

"To all intents and purposes the United Bermuda Party is totally irrelevant and that affords the party an opportunity to deal with this issue relatively free from an overt threat from the UBP.

Hodgson undecided "There is a growing perception that there is a void occurring in leadership at the highest level.

"That accounts for Sir John Swan, somewhat opportunistically, trying to fill that void at any opportunity he can get.

"I think any of the top challengers could mount a significant challenge to the Premier simply because she has, to some degree, squandered the populist appeal that she may have had in the past year and a half in particular.

"She hasn't really been upfront on a number of major issues and her style of leadership does not have much populist appeal.

"The PLP derives most of its support from the black majority lower income/labour groups and that can prove to be a detriment. She's not connecting with them.'' Telecommunications and E-Commerce Minister Renee Webb said she didn't think a challenge was likely after making inquiries of colleagues who were tipped to stand.

But she added: "Maybe as a consequence of being a Cabinet member I wouldn't be privy to that.'' Asked which way she would vote if there was a challenge Ms. Webb said: "That's an unfair question, obviously I am sitting in Cabinet.

But I think the Premier is doing a good job.'' Chief Whip Ottiwell Simmons said he agreed with the Premier that if challengers wanted to step forward they were welcome.

"That's a hypothetical question. I will just have to see what happens.'' Asked whether there should be an election, backbencher Stanley Morton said: "I am not going to express that publicly.'' And asked whether he would back the Premier if she were challenged, Mr. Morton said: "I don't know what I will do. I am not going to say publicly.'' Tourism Minister David Allen said he did not know if there would be a challenge but would vote for the Premier if there was an election.

He said: "She considers it healthy to have a challenge and no doubt will succeed and go from strength to strength with this renewed mandate.'' A senior PLP source said: "There is a lot of feeling to remove her but if any efforts are made to smite her they will group and rally behind her. She'll win by just one vote.'' And he said media coverage of the threat to her leadership would strengthen the Premier's hand as she would then stir up antipathy towards The Royal Gazette .

He explained: "They will rally behind her to prove that you are wrong.'' But he said anger in the party was mounting over both the style and substance of Ms. Smith's leadership. "There's a zillion and one things. She is centralising power.'' He said the party was angry the Premier concentrated on having overseas trips rather than tackling problems which gripped the nation such as housing and education.

And the Premier had acted arrogantly when dealing with fellow politicians as well as the general public, said the insider.

"The feeling is `thank you and good riddance'.'' The source said the Premier's support in the Cabinet was limited to Eugene Cox, David Allen, Nelson Bascome, Alex Scott, Dennis Lister and Dame Lois Browne Evans.

While in the House of Assembly, only Wilbur Lowe and Delaey Robinson would be backing her, said the source.

POLITICS PTL