Supreme Court nominee Harriet Miers’ sudden withdrawal underscores the strength of the social conservatives who form President George W. Bush’s political base and the weakness of a president buffeted by one political misfortune after another.

Her withdrawal came after restive conservatives mounted a stinging campaign against her credentials, culminating in a national TV ad in which some of Bush’s top supporters urged her to step down.

Heading into what may be the darkest days of his presidency, Bush still has an opportunity to regain the support of that rebellious bloc and avoid drifting earlier than usual into the lame duck status that eventually claims all second-term US presidents.

Bush appeared to have overestimated his political capital and underestimated the fervour of conservatives who put extraordinary stock in Supreme Court nominations.

“There was just less willingness to defer to the president on this,” said William Kristol, editor of the conservative Weekly Standard.

Official Washington had been ready yesterday for possible indictments of top administration officials in the CIA-leak investigation. Instead, it was rocked by Miers’ letter to the president saying her nomination was no longer “in the best interest of the country”.

Evangelicals, Republican women, Southerners and other critical groups in Bush’s political coalition are worried about the direction of the United States and have been disappointed with his performance, AP-Ipsos polling has found.

The Miers withdrawal came as the White House braced for the possibility of indictments today in a special prosecutor’s investigation into whether top officials leaked the name of CIA operative Valerie Plame as part of an effort to discredit her husband and his outspoken criticism of the Iraq war.

Adding to the distractions confronting the Bush presidency: rising fuel prices, soaring deficit spending and increasing opposition to the Iraq war, which on Tuesday tallied the 2,000th American military death.

Even Bush’s trip yesterday to inspect damage in southern Florida from Hurricane Wilma served as a reminder of the criticism he drew for a sluggish response when Hurricane Katrina slammed into New Orleans and the Gulf Coast on August 29 while he was vacationing. Since then, the political storms have been roaring in one after the other.

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Arlen Specter said in an October 10 interview with The Associated Press that withdrawing Miers’ nomination would be “a sign of incredible weakness” for the president. Yesterday, Specter called her belittlement by fellow Republicans and her withdrawal “a sad episode in the history of Washington, D.C.”

Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid, who had recommended Miers to the president, called her a victim of “the radical right wing of the Republican Party”.

Even moderate Republicans have been fretting about losing their hard-won control of Congress in next year’s midterm elections as a result of repeated party setbacks. — Associated Press