giving credence to Government statements that the economy has "moved out of recession and the level of consumer confidence (has) increased.'' In one of his periodic reports on the state of the Island's economy, the Finance Minister announced in the House of Assembly yesterday that the "cautious optimism'' shown at the time of the February budget "has been borne out by various statistics that have been released'' since it was read.

"Economic growth is expected to have accelerated during the first quarter of 1994 and the outlook for the current quarter is favourable,'' the Hon. David Saul said.

The increase in GNP marks the first real growth in Bermuda's economy since 1989.

One of the key indicators of this growth is the estimated surplus of $45 million in the Island's balance of payments -- the largest surplus ever.

"Much of this improvement from the small surplus of $11 million in 1992 can be attributed to the 13.9-percent increase in visitor expenditure in 1993 to $505 million and the 18.4-percent increase in expenditure by international companies to $425 million from the 1992 figure of $359 million,'' Dr. Saul said.

He also noted that the figures for international company expenditure did not include the overseas earnings by Bermudian banks or by members of the Bermuda International Business Association. At the same time, the number of international companies registered in Bermuda continued to grow. At the end of March, 7,829 such companies were on the register, an increase of 251 companies since the end of December 1993.

"This strong growth was sustained during April with a further 76 exempted companies and exempted partnerships being registered,'' the Finance Minister stated.

Tourism -- the Island's most visible economic indicator -- also performed well. Per capita expenditure by air visitors, for example, rose by 2.9 percent in 1993 to $1,128, the first real growth in visitor expenditure since 1989.

In the first quarter of this year, moreover, visitor expenditure was estimated at $57.7 million, compared with $43 million in the same period last year.

"This expenditure, which translates into per capita expenditure of around $961, represents a nine-percent increase over the $881 average expenditure in the same period in 1993,'' Mr. Saul said.

Visitor arrivals -- the overall relevance of which has been much debated of late -- grew to 60,064 in the first quarter of 1994, a 23.1-percent increase over the same period last year. More important to hotels, the number of "bed nights'' sold by the major operators increased by 19.6 percent to 173,539.

"In part this is a reflection of the fact that all the major hotels remained open during the winter months,'' Dr. Saul said. "Nevertheless, this upturn should place our hotels in a better position to capitalise on the gradual global improvement in tourism.'' Other economic statistics released by the Minister included: A decrease in the number of unemployed, from 1,089 in April 1993 to 667 in April 1994. At the same time, the number of recipients of social and housing assistance fell from 2,017 to 1,582.

No significant increase in the rate of inflation, with the consumer price index remaining steady at 2.3 percent in April.

An expected increase in the demand for construction work, which fell slightly in the first quarter of this year.

As Government will take over operation of the airport from departing US forces next year, Dr. Saul also urged restraint when it came to official spending, saying "the Government must move with caution on the spending front because there are many unknowns awaiting us insofar as capital costs are concerned at the US base.'' Expanding on his point, Dr. Saul warned that a recent report's estimate of $8.4 million as the annual cost to Bermudians of running the airfield is "a considerable under-estimate,'' since it "includes the use of base personnel on military salaries for a number of essential functions.'' At the same time as the Minister was warning Government, he also cautioned business to "refrain from taking advantage of the gradually improving economic and financial conditions to raise their prices to improve their margins, if we are to maintain our improving competitive position.''