Doing the sums
people now expect to have their say, pro or con, at a referendum. The decision on holding a referendum has yet to be taken by the House of Assembly and the Senate but it must pass and we do not think that a few parliamentarians who are unhappy with the idea of Independence should stand in the way of the right of the people to vote and decide their fate.
A vote for an Independence referendum is simply a vote to let the people have their say. It is not a vote for Independence. It would be disastrous for the Country if a few dissidents like Mrs. Ann Cartwright DeCouto, Mr. Trevor Moniz, Dr. C.R. Terceira and Dr. David Dyer joined with the Opposition Progressive Labour Party to defeat a referendum.
The Opposition would dearly love to embarrass the Government on such a major issue and already feels that the Independence decision should be the subject of a General Election. Yet a General Election would hang on all sorts of issues other than Independence and the Opposition did not have the nerve to raise Independence as an issue at the last election.
Having gone this far, the people would see the defeat of a referendum bill as depriving them of their right to have their say. That will be especially true if the decision is made for conflicting reasons and the ruling party is split.
We think that would be unwise and divisive and might well lead to some considerable conflict in the Country.
Both the Green and White Papers of 1977 and 1979, said that any decision on Independence must represent the opinion of a majority of Bermudians. That is no longer the case but in the current Green Paper at least two thirds of the registered voters must vote. The people as a whole must never be placed in a position of a minority vote deciding on Independence, one way or the other.
The vote must be clear and positive or it will be open to debate and misinterpretation. There is also a real possibility that Britain might reject a minority decision in favour of Independence as not representing the will of the people. Britain must already be unhappy that the people have been presented with an incomplete and biased Green Paper.
The arithmetic on how the issue of Independence will be decided must be made very clear to the people of Bermuda. Under the suggestions in the current Green Paper, just 11,546 poeple voting for Independence could take the entire Country of some 58,000 to Independence.
We are all reregistering to vote right now but the figures are unlikely to change a great deal and today's register lists 34,637 voters. Two thirds of those on the electoral roll have to vote for the referendum to be binding on the Government, and at least 50 percent of the ballots cast plus one ballot declares the choice. Half of 66 percent is 33 percent and a third of 34,637 is 11,545 plus one or 11,546 people. That is only about one fifth of the entire population of some 58,000 people.
It is probably fair to say that the result is highly unlikely to be so closely split. Then too if the question were to be decided at a General Election the number is likely to be smaller than 11,546.
We can only hope that the people are fully aware of the arithmetic.