Premier Alex Scott?s approval rating officially slid below 35 percent in the latest Research Innovations poll ? ranking him on par with former Premier Jennifer Smith before she was dethroned in the hours following the 2003 General Election.

Public opinion of Mr. Scott also continued to decline over the last few months. While opinion of Opposition Leader Grant Gibbons appears to have wavered over the last year or so, in January it also slumped to a low.

In the meantime, the Research Innovations poll showed that if a General Election were held tomorrow it would prove impossible to call. Support was almost evenly split between the PLP and the UBP (32.2 percent and 30.9 percent respectively), and the National Liberal Party (NLP) would receive 1.3 percent of the votes. Nearly a quarter of voters were unsure who they would vote for.

Almost 12 percent of voters, however, said if an election were held tomorrow they would not vote at all.

The questions were put to 401 people in a random telephone poll commissioned by in January. When asked if they approved or disapproved of the way Mr. Scott is handling his job as Premier, 34.4 percent said they approved ? down from 37.3 percent in November of 2004, and continuing the downward trend from Mr. Scott?s high of 80 percent in November, 2003.

Mr. Scott?s disapproval rating jumped nearly ten percent, however, from 36.3 in November, 2004 to 45.4 in January. Fewer Bermudians were uncertain how they felt, with 20.2 percent saying they were unsure how to rate the job Mr. Scott is doing ? down from 26.5 percent unsure in November.

Mr. Scott received his greatest approval ratings in the 36-54 age bracket (37.8 percent). Next came those older than 55 (34.1 percent), and finally those in the 18-35 age bracket (27.9 percent).

Men showed more disapproval than approval of the Premier (35.8 percent approving, 50.3 percent disapproving, 13.9 percent unsure) while women were slightly more evenly divided in their job approval ratings of the Premier (33.9 percent approving, 40.6 percent disapproving, and 25.4 percent unsure).

By household income, the Premier received the highest job approval ratings in households with an income of between $50,000-$100,000 (48.7 percent). Next came households with an income of below $50,000 (30.4 percent) and finally households with an income of above $100,000 (27.3 percent).

Black Bermudians gave Mr. Scott the highest job approval ratings at 46.8 percent, while 17.1 percent of whites approved.

Most demographics had a better opinion of Mr. Scott personally than they did of his job effectiveness ? though less so than they did in November.

Nearly 40 percent of those surveyed said they had a favourable opinion of the Premier overall (down from 44.8 percent), while 41.9 percent had an unfavourable opinion (up from 29.8 percent) and 18.7 percent were unsure (down from 25.1 percent).

Public opinion continues to waver on Opposition leader Grant Gibbons.

In May, 2004, public opinion of Dr. Gibbons stood at 52.6 percent in favour. Those numbers fell some ten percent in July before rising again to 50.5 percent in November, 2004.

In January, however, favourable opinion of Dr. Gibbons declined yet again to 37.3 percent, its lowest since May.

Regarding party support, the PLP appeared to have the majority of Bermuda?s young people on its side. Of those aged 18-35, 40.0 percent said they would vote PLP if an election were held tomorrow.

In contrast, the UBP found its stronghold in those aged 55 and over, with 39.8 percent saying they would vote UBP.

Men liked the PLP far more than women did, with 47.8 percent of men and 21.4 percent of women saying they would vote PLP. Women backed the UBP (34.6 percent) while the UBP received 26.9 percent of the male vote.

Across the income scale, the PLP received stronger support in the lower- and middle-income brackets (36.5 percent and 36.6 percent respectively) while the UBP held 27.1 percent of lower-income households and 27.5 percent of middle income households.

The PLP lead was eroded slightly in the high-income brackets, with 26.4 percent saying they would vote PLP and 40.3 percent saying they would vote UBP.

Racially, an higher proportion of black Bermudians in comparison to whites said they would refuse to vote ? 14.2 percent to 2.4 percent. Reasons why they would refuse to vote were not cited.

Black Bermudians also appeared to be more divided politically than white Bermudians, with 44 percent saying they would vote PLP, 15.6 percent saying they would vote UBP, and 24.4 percent saying they were unsure how they would vote.

In contrast, 4.8 percent of whites said they would vote PLP, 74.7 percent said they would vote UBP, and 18.1 percent said they were unsure.

The total of 23.8 percent of those polled who said they were unsure how they would vote if an election were held tomorrow could have a significant impact on the outcome of that election.