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KBW expects Bermuda insurers’ earnings to beat the Street

Inundated: Homes are flooded as Hurricane Isaac hits Louisiana. KBW expects the storm to cost insurers $1 billion to $2 billion.

Bermuda’s property and casualty re/insurers should be reporting strong third-quarter profits over the next few weeks after light catastrophe activity in the July through September period.That is the view of analysts Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW), who indicate in their insurance market earnings preview that they expect most Bermuda companies to do better than the consensus forecasts of Wall Street analysts.KBW estimates industry losses of $1 billion to $2 billion from Hurricane Isaac, and significant crop insurance losses related to the devastating US drought.“With good EPS and potentially favourable news on capital management activity ahead of us, we expect the property and casualty sector to have a good third quarter 2012 earnings season,” KBW states.“Our top picks are those we view to have stable reserves and the ability to show profitable growth such as Ace, Axis Capital, ProAssurance and PartnerRe.”KBW sees some upward pressure on insurance rates.“We expect pricing pressures will remain modestly upward,” KBW states. “US commercial lines appear to be up in the six to seven percent range and personal lines are rising in the two to three percent range.“In reinsurance, our expectation for January 1 is generally flat, including catastrophes lines, despite what is shaping up to be a cat-free year.”KBW also expects to see an uptick in share repurchases from Bermudian re/insurers after a quiet hurricane season.