Over the past couple of weeks since the convening of the House of Parliament, the tabling, debate and impending passage of the people's Budget and the media attention coupled with public interest surrounding it, I have, while balancing the media interests of my Party, paid measured attention to the Opposition, especially its leadership.

This leadership, spearheaded by The Opposition Leader Grant Gibbons and shadowed by Furbert, Dunkley, Barritt, Burgess, and a distant Simmons and Gordon-Pamplin, form the offensive front line of a former Government now locked in the trappings of Opposition.

These eager players, like traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, instantly react to ever single word, impulse and imprint on the ticker with the intent to highlight, embarrass, claim moral high ground or, just interrupt. The question is, is this an effective strategy? Is it an acceptance of their lot in life as Opposition, merely stick to the definition of a loyal opposition and just oppose, or is it the by-product of a broader strategy? A broader strategy would require buy in, buy in would require individual acceptance mixed with a 'forward together or nothing' approach and a Party membership content to accept the end result regardless of the road travelled. At the end, success would be measured by its affirmation at the polls and just what percentage of its core was left, both visually and fundamentally.

In November of 2003, in answering a Bermuda Sun popularity poll of political leaders in Bermuda, I stated, of Grant Gibbons and his 63 percent approval rating: "It is absolutely believable that 63 percent of respondents have a favourable view of the Opposition Leader and Shadow Minister of Finance Dr. Grant Gibbons ? Dr. Gibbons has distinguished himself as a tireless advocate for sound financial management and complete governmental fiscal accountability. It has been previously widely believed that his national favourability resulted from his family ties and contributions made by his predecessors rather than his own personal ability, but I believe he has proven the latter to be true. However, Dr. Gibbons does not have the monopoly on financial money management ability and our government has proven that the country's economic health is bigger than one person ? what we are achieving is being achieved by a team and not just a leader."

In recent months, unceremonious departures from the United Bermuda Party of some core members have uncovered chips in the veneer confirming the speculation that the core UBP Party is tiring of Dr. Gibbon's leadership. If the parting salvoes are any indication, those not content to let the sun set on the UBP, are now, as we speak, preparing the short list of candidates to replace him. The list will be short, the interviews short and the euphoria will be short. But this is not necessarily an indictment of Dr. Gibbons. In his Party, he remains, I am sure, well liked. I do not believe even the parting or dissenting, grumbling members dislike him. They, along with the rest of the electorate, feel he may not be the person to lead them to the next election or effectively lead Bermuda.

In my view, outside of fiscal policy, exhaustive analysis might reveal that Dr. Gibbons would be weak on other elements of domestic policy primarily due to society and community disconnect. Not being able to insert oneself into the shoes of an electorate you intend to assist, no matter how much money you allocate, absence of strategy or lack of familiarity to form a strategy, renders the entire exercise null and void. His apparent, obvious disconnect with the majority electorate along with the inner Party discontent make him the less likely candidate to lead the UBP into the next election.

Besides, he could be a liability. Dr. Gibbons, by social, political, or economic definition may arguably represent the trickle down economics of the 80's, the immeasurable governmental fiscal excess and unmonitored, unenforced, unregulated big business promotion and capitalistic ideologies that, at the very end, led to the Enrons and Tycos of this world. This unbridled, fiscal excess retained an ultra affluent privileged minority, here in Bermuda, who never considered any issue outside of themselves unless their economic, social, religious, mental and political advantage was factored in. When the bubble finally burst, they had to find a way to retain the wealth and lead by stealth. Following the 2003 Election defeat, the UBP had to acknowledge, in hindsight, that leadership of their party had to change and embrace a segment of the electorate they could no longer immediately manipulate.

How do you achieve that? Cosmetically re-invent a Party, work tirelessly to discredit a sitting Government, reflect on the good times when you were Government and promise, promise, promise. Either way or no matter what strategy is adapted, the UBP you see today is the UBP of old. In recent days, we have seen a campaign by the UBP to remind the electorate of the glory days of their Party and Government while touting themselves as the New United Bermuda Party. Are you out with the old, in with the new? Or are you old ideology, new players?

Regardless, the old UBP guard is getting tired. They never expected to be in Opposition this long and with every passing day, the strategy justification wears thinner. Only time will tell. In the mean time, the Progressive Labour Party will continue to govern in the best interest of the people of Bermuda while the old UBP guard brushes up on the opening bars of "God Save The Queen".

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