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XL’s McGavick: Sandy may change perception of risk

XL Group: Beat analysts’ estimates for a third successive quarter (Photo by Mark Tatem)

XL Group CEO Mike McGavick believes superstorm Sandy will change the insurance industry’s perception of risk.Speaking in a conference call last night, Mr McGavick said the global business insurer had no loss estimates yet, but he commented briefly on Sandy’s impact on the industry.His remarks came after XL posted third-quarter net income of $171.9 million and comfortably beat analysts’ expectations for a third successive quarter.“The reality is that no one really knows anything with certainty at this early stage,” Mr McGavick said. “I don’t think Sandy ends up being a capital event for the industry.”But while it may not change the capital situation, “I do believe it may change the industry’s perception of risk”, he added.What was clear, he said, was the complexity and concentration of risk in the impacted area and the fact that too many people did not have the insurance coverage they had needed. Also the region hit by the storm was “not as well prepared as it could have been” he said.Jamie Veghte, XL’s head of reinsurance operations added that it was too early to estimate losses, as even the cat modelling firm XL works most closely with had not yet been able to make an estimate. If the storm turns out to be a $20 billion or above loss event, he said that would be remarkable in that it was a post-tropical cyclone when it came ashore.Greg Hendrick, XL’s head of insurance operations said the company had identified 175 potential claims, based on reports from clients, brokers and the media. He added that the company had substantial reinsurance protection in place.XL’s operating earnings were 61 cents per share, compared to the 50 cents expectation of analysts tracked by Yahoo Finance. This was more than double the 28 cents per share achieved in the same period of 2011.In the earnings statement, Mr McGavick said: “XL’s strong third quarter results are another step in the right direction. Our P&C combined ratio of 92.2 percent was more than nine points better than the same period last year.“This resulted from lower underlying loss ratios, in part due to a lower number of large losses; fewer catastrophes; and, to a lesser extent, positive prior year development. We are resolved to maintain this progress.”He added: “Our thoughts are with those still dealing with the effects of Sandy. As we all witnessed, this was simply a massive event by any measure. We will continue to work with our clients, brokers and partners to provide any assistance we can.”Net income attributable to shareholders broke down to 56 cents per share, compared to the $42.4 million, or 14 cents a share in the prior-year quarter.Natural catastrophe losses were $32 million during the third quarter, net of reinsurance and reinstatement premiums. In the prior year quarter, down from $110.6 million in the same quarter last year, when Hurricane Irene struck the US East Coast.XL’s property and casualty operations have shown consistent profitability through the first three quarters of the year. The combined ratio — the proportion of premium dollars outlaid on claims and expenses — was 92.2 percent for the quarter and 92.7 percent for the first nine months.Property and casualty gross premiums written were $1.58 billion for the quarter, representing an 11.3 percent decrease from the same period last year.Annualised operating return on ordinary shareholders’ equity was 7.4 percent for the quarter and 7.7 percent for the year to date.XL, a Dublin-based company which has substantial operations in Bermuda, said it spent $125 million buying back 5.3 million of its own shares during the July through September period.Fully diluted tangible book value per share was $32.82 at September 30, 2012 — an increase of $4.51, or 15.9 percent, from the end of last year.

XL CEO Mike
XL Group Q3 Report Card

Net income: $171.9 million compared to $42.4 million in the thrid quarter of 2011.

Gross premiums written: $1.58 billion compared to $1.78 billion in 2011.

Combined ratio: 92.2 percent compared to 101.6 percent in 2011.