The most shocking thing about the unravelling of the United Bermuda Party over the weekend is that it is not shocking at all.

The reality is that the UBP has had the air of being "a dead man walking" at least since the 2007 general election and in many ways since the departures of MP Jamahl Simmons and party chairwoman Gwyneth Rawlins earlier that year.

That's not to say that the UBP's collapse was or even is certain, but a revival has not taken place since the UBP's general election defeat and it seems unlikely that it will do so under the current leadership.

Opposition Leader Kim Swan is a genuinely good man – something of a rarity in politics anywhere, let alone in Bermuda – who has the best interests of Bermuda at heart.

And there is no doubting his tenacity. As Dame Jennifer Smith did in the neighbouring constituency, he battled away in St. George's West until he won it.

But since becoming UBP leader in January 2008, almost, it must be said, by default, he has not been able to unite his MPs or define a way forward for the party that will enable them to win a general election.

And his leadership has been in real doubt since the failure of the UBP confidence motion over the Uighurs. However you look at it, Mr. Swan led on that issue, and in the end he could not even compel all of his own MPs to support it.

More broadly, the UBP has been unable to define itself. It has made the cardinal error of allowing itself to be defined by others.

Moreover, the old electoral maths of a block white vote and conservative black voters added to black swing voters just does not work any more; not when the UBP base is ageing and shrinking and it has not been able to expand its base in a meaningful way.

It seems likely that this problem is behind the decision of the breakaway group; quite simply, as long as they are labelled UBP they cannot break the racial gridlock that has come to define Bermuda politics.

If that's the case, then good luck to them. Bermuda will never be mature politically until it gets to a place where voters choose their representatives on the basis of issues and personality rather than perceived racial solidarity. To be sure, race is and will be one of those issues, but when race becomes the sole issue, it is a cancer that poisons the Bermuda body politic.

Having said that, it will not be easy, not least because Bermuda has never been a welcoming place for three parties at once and the likelihood is that either the UBP will die, or this new grouping will go the way of the Bermuda Democratic Party and the National Liberal Party. It is not impossible that the break-up of the UBP will lead to something similar in the Progressive Labour Party, since it often seems to be defined by who it is against – the UBP, the old Front Street establishment – than what it is for.

Still, this new group must define and differentiate itself as something other than either the UBP or the Progressive Labour Party.

To pledge to break the racial gridlock is certainly part of that, but there needs to be more – a new and clear vision of where Bermuda should go.

Neither of the existing parties truly offers that now, and it seems clear that a great many people are looking for change. The fact that a third or more of voters are uncommitted to either party between elections suggests there is fertile ground here to plough, especially among younger voters.

So far, the breakaway MPs have been tantalisingly vague – equal opportunity, social justice, security and fiscal conservatism is a start and sounds wonderful, but they they need to put meat on the bones of what that means.

And clearly, this party cannot survive and gain power – which is the point, of course – unless it can attract PLP members and supporters. That is not impossible since disillusionment with the PLP leadership is possibly just as high as it is with the UBP's, but this party must be more than "we're-not-the-UBP-honestly" if it is to succeed.