Nike expects revenues to rise 40% by 2015
Q. Nike Inc. always seems to be encountering controversy. What's your opinion of my shares of it?—P.B., via the Internet
A. There's a lot more to the world's largest athletic shoe and clothing maker than controversy over golfer Tiger Woods or his commercials for the company.
The home of the "swoosh" logo expects overall revenue to rise more than 40 percent to $27 billion by 2015, boosted by its namesake brand and others that it owns, such as its Converse basketball line.
Lightweight Lunar Glide running shoes and Pro Combat football gear typify its constant stream of new products.
CEO Mark Parker is on the lookout for other brands to acquire and also sees potential in women's apparel. With Nike's markets in the US, Europe and Japan maturing, Parker expects middle-class growth around the globe to help it find new audiences in emerging markets. China is already a big customer.
Parker believes its Umbro soccer-style and Hurley skateboard-oriented clothing brands also have long-term potential.
Shares of Nike "B" (NKE) are up 16 percent this year following last year's 32 percent increase. On confidence boosted by strong profits, it announced plans to repurchase more than $5 billion of its shares over the next five years.
Some economic concerns in its industry include consumer spending, excess inventory, vulnerability to foreign currency volatility and trade issues. Changing fashion preferences can also have an impact.
While quarterback Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers is the firm's latest sports representative with high-visibility problems, it also features celebrities such as Michael Jordan, Maria Sharapova and Kobe Bryant.
Consensus rating of Nike shares is "buy," according to Thomson Reuters, consisting of five "strong buys," six "buys" and 10 "holds".
Named CEO in 2006, Parker was previously co-president and has been with Nike for nearly 30 years. He divested the less profitable Starter line in 2007 and the Bauer Hockey brand in 2008.
Nike can also encounter political issues. The University of Wisconsin recently cancelled its licensing agreement with Nike over concerns about the company's treatment of workers in Honduras. Chancellor Biddy Martin said Nike hasn't done enough to help workers collect severance payments they are owed at two factories that closed last year.
Earnings are expected to rise one percent this year versus the 12 percent expected for the apparel, footwear and accessories industry. Next year's projected growth rate of 13 percent is in line with its peers. The five-year annualized growth rate expectation of 12 percent also corresponds to the industry-wide forecast.
Q. What is the expectation for my shares of American Century Growth Fund?—B.L., via the Internet
A. Since it aims to do a little better than the Standard & Poor's 500 index over the long haul, that's pretty much what you can expect.
This fund keeps its sector weightings fairly in line with that benchmark so as not to rock the boat, making it best-suited to conservative investors seeking tranquil waters. It also has modest expenses.
The $2.1 billion American Century Equity Growth Fund (BEQGX) is up 28 percent over the past 12 months to rank in the top one-fifth of large growth and value funds. Its three-year annualised decline of 8.5 percent places it in the lowest one-fifth of its peers.
"This is a core fund that is pretty easy to hang on to and will help you sleep easy at night," said Karin Anderson, analyst with Morningstar Inc. in Chicago. "If you buy this fund expecting it to outperform the S&P by just a couple of percentage points, you won't be disappointed and can put it in your portfolio and leave it alone."
Its experienced management team is headed by William Martin, on board since the fund launch in 1997, and Tom Vaiana, who has been with it since 2001. According to filings, Martin has between $100,000 and $500,000 of his own money invested in the fund, while Vaiana has between $50,000 and $100,000.
Several quantitative analysts are on the team. Their computer models select stocks for the portfolio by looking at low valuations, growth rates and price-momentum factors. American Century Equity Growth Fund invests primarily in large US companies with market capitalisation greater than $2 billion.
Financial services is its largest concentration at 15 percent, followed by hardware, healthcare and consumer goods. Its top holdings are ExxonMobil Corp., IBM, Johnson & Johnson, Microsoft Corp., Apple Inc., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., AT&T Inc., Google Inc., Procter & Gamble Co. and Cisco Systems Inc. This one percent "load" (sales charge) fund requires a $2,500 minimum initial investment and has an annual expense ratio of 1.70 percent.
Q. Do mutual fund managers have their own money in their funds? Is there significance to this?—F.P., via the Internet
A. Whether the manager has a significant amount of his or her own money invested in the fund is one of many factors to be considered when selecting a mutual fund.
The logic is that an invested manager has interests aligned with shareholders and confidence in the overall strategy.
"As an investor, I would want to know whether a portfolio manager has any skin in the game," said Wayne Thorp, financial analyst with American Association of Individual Investors in Chicago. "Luckily, you can find manager ownership levels and fund ownership policies in the 'additional information' section of a fund's prospectus."
A study by Morningstar Inc. last fall found managers of 51 percent of funds it tracked over the prior five years had no stake in their own funds. Meanwhile, funds whose managers invested $1 million or more in their fund outperformed 58 percent of their peers.
"You still must use judgment and look at expenses and tax consequences," said Mark Balasa, co-president of Balasa Dinverno Foltz, Itasca, Ill. "But it should give an investor comfort that people managing his money have the same vested interest."
Andrew Leckey answers questions only through the column. Address inquiries to Andrew Leckey, 555 N. Central Ave., Suite 302, Phoenix, Arizona 85004-1248, or by e-mail at andrewinv@aol.com