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A 'lame duck' leader or a Premier with something still to give? – opinion is split

Final months: Premier Dr. Ewart Brown speaks at a press conference flanked by Attourney General Kim Wilson, Senator David Burch, acting Minister for Culture Michael Scott and Minister of Health Walter Roban.

The threat of leadership challenges which hung over his head for so long may have finally disappeared for good, but it's far from plain sailing for Premier Ewart Brown as he enters his final few months as Bermuda's leader.

Dr. Brown is now facing a kind of criticism which is as new to the Island as to the Premier himself — he's been dubbed a lame duck.

Never before has the Island's leader announced their departure with so long left in their term, and some predict Dr. Brown's reign could become as frustrating for himself as it's been for his opponents for the past three years.

His chances of pushing through legislation such as gambling are deemed slimmer than ever, with some party colleagues even less likely to support his ideas now they know he's on his way out.

And with the public increasingly focusing their attention on likely successor Paula Cox and possible challenger Dale Butler, some are questioning whether anyone's even listening to Dr. Brown any more.

"We are going to see some unfamiliar territory for Bermudians," said one Progressive Labour Party member who asked not to be named.

"People will be listening more to Paula than they will to Dr. Brown. What's going to make what she has to say even more important is the tough financial times ahead — she's the Finance Minister."

Last night the Premier, speaking of his final months as leader, said he "will run through the finish line."

While Dr. Brown retains some support in the PLP ranks, commentators to dub him a lame duck this month include regular critics Larry Burchall and Christian Dunleavy, as well as United Bermuda Party leader Kim Swan.

A term for a leader weakened by the approaching end of their tenure, it's more commonly used in the United States, and opponents of Dr. Brown say it depicts a fitting conclusion to his American style of leadership.

Mr. Swan said Bermuda desperately needs a strong Premier as it confronts probable job losses, stalling education reform, gang violence and a free fall in tourism.

"The need for committed, credible political leadership is critical to helping the community face up to these challenges," said Mr. Swan.

"And a fully engaged Premier can be the catalyst for doing what needs to be done. But this Premier's announcement that he will step down toward the end of this year undermines whatever leverage he has left to push the public and his colleagues to improve the Island's performance. This is especially so if those steps are unpopular.

"This is the meaning of a lame duck politician and Dr. Brown, by his own words, has made himself one. In the process he has undercut his ability to get things done. He has, in effect, said to Bermudians, 'Come Fall, I'm outta here.'

"This Government has shown itself to be content with drift and the Premier's retirement plan is just one more example of that unfortunate condition."

Jonathan Starling — speaking as a PLP supporter and independent social commentator — said Dr. Brown could still be an effective leader on some issues, but warned: "I doubt he'll be able to push through the gambling legislation that he tried in the last year. I think that's a write-off.

"I know it was in the Throne Speech, and I understand that the gaming task force report was handed to Cabinet some months ago, but I personally would be surprised if anything gets passed regarding it.

"It might go out for public consultation and discussion, but I cannot see any legislation being successful, and doubt he would bring it into play."

As ever, Dr. Brown's unpredictability makes it impossible to take anything for granted, with one PLP member saying: "I wouldn't put anything past him regarding gambling.

"He was adamant about getting it through and I think he's capable of trying again. Would it get knocked back? Maybe, but he would probably get full support from the (Bermuda Democratic) Alliance this time."

Mr. Starling has irked some of Dr. Brown's supporters by criticising the Premier in the past, but the blogger maintains he's been a "great leader" who has overseen progress.

And, far from being a spent force, he believes Dr. Brown will keep focusing on tackling crime, reforming education and making the municipalities more democratic as October approaches.

He says that by recently declaring his intention to speak freely the Premier has hinted the race debate will stay at the forefront.

"I think he's going to give his frank assessment of the race problem, of social problems stemming from education and the breakdown of the extended family system," said Mr. Starling.

Offering further support to Dr. Brown, PLP West organiser Makai Dickerson said: "It is my view that he will carry out the remainder of his term as party leader and Premier of Bermuda with as much energy and hard work as he has since he obtained the leadership.

"I predict a smooth and easy transition into the next leadership. Until that time I believe that we should take heed to anything said by Dr. Brown in respect to the number of posts that he still holds."

Mr. Dickerson added that speculation over Dr. Brown's replacement was counterproductive, saying: "No one has put their name forward as of yet and to speculate or make assumptions on any individual could risk putting added pressure and discomfort upon them.

"The party has an allotted time for those interested in the post to step up and put their name forward. Until then I feel it is in the party and Country's best interest to allow Dr. Brown the comfort to continue his work and complete the remainder of his term."