NEW YORK (Bloomberg) — JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut its forecast for costs to ship goods such as coal and iron ore next year by as much as 12 percent as fleet expansion curbs earnings.

One-year charter rates for capesize vessels, the biggest ships tracked by the Baltic Dry Index, will average $29,000 a day next year, New York-based analyst Jonathan B. Chappell, wrote in an October 28 report. That's down from a previous $33,000 forecast. Rental estimates for smaller panamax, supramax and handymax class vessels were lowered between 4.2 and 9.1 percent.

"Ongoing rampant fleet expansion could result in lower rate highs over the next 12 to 18 months," Chappell said. "The supply side of the equation is becoming more daunting as the spike in deliveries scheduled for 2010 draws nearer and as scrapping has eased from first-half 2009 levels."

Commodity-shipping rates rose to a record in 2008 before collapsing a record 92 percent by year-end, leaving ships on order surplus to requirements. Fleet capacity will expand 9.5 percent this year and 8.1 percent in 2010, Chappell said. Demand will contract 2.1 percent this year and grow 5.1 percent next year, he said.