How to invest to cash in on recovery
Here's what we already know we can expect in 2009: Chintzy raises, more lay-offs, a weak economy — and a new president with a stimulus package in his back pocket.
What we don't know is how it will all play out, and what kinds of investment bets to make now.
There does seem to be a general consensus among financial industry economists that the US will not fall off a cliff into a depression, but that the current recession will last at least into the summer of 2009 if not throughout the year. Many are also predicting a world-wide slowdown, with interest rates, real estate and stock prices all falling or staying depressed in most countries.
Inflation remains less of a worry than deflation, at least until the economy finds its footing and consumers, businesses and the deficit-ridden federal government resume their big borrowing.
Here's how to invest now, so that your nest egg is ready for what lies ahead.
— Continue stock market investments. "We expect a strong year for stocks in 2009," says Jeffrey Hirsch of the Stock Trader's Almanac.
"People are going to look back and wish they had bought equities around these levels," says Mike Roberge of MSF Investment Management.
There's a lot of that sentiment around. The theory behind it is that the stock market is a leading indicator; if the economy is going to recover in the middle or second half of 2009, the stock market recovery should start around ... now! In five to 10 years, the suggested minimum time frame for stock market investors, today's prices may look very good. Best bets would include solid companies that have been beaten down by the broader market free fall. With Barack Obama talking about putting money into infrastructure and alternative energy, those two sectors would be worth investigating.
But in times of broad market upturns, a low-cost index fund can perform as well as a mix of individually selected stocks.
— Beware small stocks. Typically small growth companies do really well in January, but don't expect that this year, says Hirsch. They are more likely to lag the blue chips in recovering their momentum.