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Base metals set to get hot this summer

TORONTO (Reuters) - Canadian base metals stocks took it on the chin last year, losing more than two-thirds of their value after getting drop-kicked by plunging materials demand and a wave of panic selling on stock markets.

Now, they are back with a vengeance, more than doubling since early March.

Despite the speedy ascent and some doubts about demand, analysts said stock fundamentals and the longer-term prospects for economic recovery suggest there's plenty more upside in the sector.

"Exiting this year and into 2010 you want to be overweight the metals for sure, and in fact we could have quite an exciting summer," said John Hughes, a mining analyst at Desjardins Securities in Toronto,

Hughes said he favours base metal stocks over gold miners despite a 103 percent rise in the base metals-heavy S&P/TSX mining subgroup in just over 10 weeks, a gain that would seem overheated compared to the steadier 20 percent rise of golds over the same period.

While base metal shares may be due for brief period of flat trading, or even a pullback, Hughes said the sector will get a further boost as metals demand ramps up later this year. As well, valuations are still reasonable.

"Relative to a historical earnings multiple basis, these stocks are reasonably inexpensive," he said.

Hughes said a normal longer-term price-to-earnings ratio for the sector would be in the seven to nine range.

This compares favourably to base miners such as Teck Resources, which is trading at a price to 2010 earnings ratio of 6.6, while copper miner First Quantum is at 6.7, and copper and zinc producer HudBay Minerals is at 7.0. Hughes rates all three stocks "buy".

Hughes and others point to the importance of the "macro" story — the sensitivity of base metal prices and mining companies to economic growth.