NEW YORK (Bloomberg) — Opec, which announced a larger-than-expected nine percent cut in output yesterday, risks cutting more supply than is needed to support prices, Barclays analysts said.

The group, source of more than 40 percent of world crude, "is likely to continue its tightening until the value of the Opec basket has at least regained $70 per barrel", the bank said. "Such is the difficulty of micro management of the oil price that we would expect to see something of a significant overshoot as 2009 unfolds."

A 400,000-barrel-a-day decline in crude supplies from non-members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries will account for "much" of the forecast reduction in energy demand next year, the bank said in a report. Opec announced yesterday a record output cut of 2.46 million barrels a day starting January 1 to stem oil's decline.

"Opec runs the risk of covering a gap that is already likely to be covered," the bank said.

Barclays forecasts oil averaging $76 a barrel next year. The price, which has fallen 75 percent from the record $147.27 on July 11, declined to a four-year low of $35.98 a barrel today on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil fell $3.84, or 9.6 percent, to settle at $36.22 a barrel in New York.

Oil demand in Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development countries, such as the US, Japan and Germany, will decline at a "slightly less rapid" pace next year than this year, when daily consumption dropped 1.5 million barrels, Barclays said.

Non-OECD demand growth, in countries such as China and India, will be 700,000 barrels a day, down from 1.4 million this year.

Energy consumption has decreased this year as Europe and the US entered recessions and economic growth in China and India declined.