The decision on Bermuda's Independence referendum could come down to a single vote -- that of Speaker of the House the Hon. Ernest DeCouto.

United Bermuda Party insiders believe the Government is assured of 18 votes on the Independence Referendum Act 1995. Based on experience, they are not counting on votes from MPs the Hon. Ann Cartwright DeCouto or Mr. Trevor Moniz.

Both MPs abstained when the Independence Referendum Act 1994 was defeated on first reading last May.

Dr. David Dyer MP -- who stayed away from the House for that vote -- remains a question mark.

Tourism Minister the Hon. C.V. (Jim) Woolridge is reason for nagging concern.

But most expect him to hold his nose and vote "yes,'' as he did last time.

With Mr. DeCouto in the Speaker's chair, Government's slim majority stands at 21-18. The party's numerical strengths in the House of Assembly have never been closer. And it has been years since the House has debated a bill as contentious or important as the Independence Referendum Act 1995.

So high political drama is expected in the House of Assembly on March 24.

Since MPs' names are called alphabetically in voting roll calls, the spotlight will fall first on Mrs. Cartwright DeCouto, then Dr. Dyer, followed by Mr.

Moniz, and finally Mr. Woolridge.

All four are keeping silent, partly to keep pressure on the others. As one of the dissenters put it, "it's like taking out the trash. Once one person says they're going to do it, everybody else stops worrying about it.'' Government's first hurdle will be to get the bill through "second reading,'' which involves debate on the general intent of the bill, followed by clause by clause scrutiny, followed by a vote.

"First reading'' occurred when the bill was tabled in the House on February 10. As is normal practice, there was no debate and no vote on first reading.

A vote on second reading occurs while the House is "in committee''. Mr.

DeCouto retires to his chambers and the committee is chaired by Deputy Speaker Mr. Tim Smith of the Government side or another MP from the panel of chairmen.

They include Mr. Rick Spurling and Dr. Dyer from the Government side and the Rev. Trevor Woolridge and Mr. Walter Lister from the Opposition.

While Opposition MPs routinely relieve Mr. Smith and take the chair during debates in committee, it would be highly unlikely that either Mr. Woolridge or Mr. Lister would allow themselves to be in the chair when the vote comes. With a Government MP in the chair, the UBP's House majority is reduced to 20-18, since the chairman only votes in the event of a tie.

If Mr. Smith is in the chair and Mrs. Cartwright DeCouto, Mr. Moniz, and Dr.

Dyer all abstain, a Government motion to report the bill to the House is lost, 18-17. If only Mrs. Cartwright DeCouto and Mr. Moniz abstain, but Dr. Dyer supports the bill, the chairman must break a 18-18 tie. While opinions differ, some House experts say the committee chairman is expected to vote for debate to continue, and support the bill.

With Dr. Dyer's support by no means assured, an interesting Government strategy would place him in the chairman's seat at the time of the vote. Then, Government would be assured of 18 votes, including one from Mr. Smith. While Dr. Dyer could still possibly vote to defeat the bill, he would lose his option to abstain.

If the bill clears the hurdle in committee on second reading, Government's referendum headaches are by no means over.

A second vote could be taken on second reading, when the Speaker asks if the report of the committee should be adopted.

That vote would take place in the whole House, with the Speaker, Mr. DeCouto in the chair. If Mrs. Cartwright DeCouto, Mr. Moniz, and Dr. Dyer abstained on that vote, Mr. DeCouto would cast the deciding vote.

Again, expert opinions differed on what Mr. DeCouto's options or responsibilities would be. Some said he would be expected to support the bill, others that he would have a free vote. More than one source said that the Speaker faced with a tie is expected to vote for the "status quo,'' and they interpreted that to mean he would be expected to defeat the bill. Another House expert said supporting the "status quo'' meant supporting the Government, as upholders of the Constititution.

In any case, it will be Mr. DeCouto's interpretation of the rules that will count on March 24, and what he would do if faced with a 18-18 tie is anybody's guess.

Not known to favour Independence, Mr. DeCouto's views on holding a referendum are unknown.

But he no doubt remembers that Premier the Hon. Sir John Swan passed over him for the Speaker's job when Parliament opened in 1993.

After ten years as Deputy Speaker and a member of the Chair Panel, Mr. DeCouto would normally have been a shoe-in for the Speaker's post. But Sir John instead nominated Dr. Dyer, who would have become the first black Speaker of the House.

It was only through Opposition manouevring that Mr. DeCouto was named Speaker.

The Progressive Labour Party was aided by three Government members, including Mr. Moniz and backbencher Mrs. Grace Bell. Because the final vote on the Speaker was taken by secret ballot, Mr. DeCouto's third supporter from the Government side remains unknown.

Normally, a bill is decided on "second reading,'' and no formal vote is taken on "third reading,'' which is the final reading. But in this case, another vote and a similar situation is possible on third reading, with the vote again taken in the whole House.

There could also be an earlier vote in the whole House, on the motion that the House move into committee to debate the bill clause by clause.

The Hon. Ernest DeCouto