temperature guarantee scheme, Bermuda Hotel Association figures reveal.

The Association's forecasts show the first three months of the year will perform marginally below last year -- when the recession was at its worst.

Despite poor booking levels, BHA president Mr. David Dodwell remains cautiously optimistic that the situation will improve by March.

"The projections for January and February are unfortunately still behind those of previous years,'' he said. "However, March might be gaining momentum with the late booking pattern. We are hopeful that the projections for the next few months will improve due to the November-March Joint Marketing Campaign and the 68 degree temperature guarantee promotion.'' Mr. Dodwell reported that the hotel industry reached an all-time low during 1992.

"As far as 1992 was concerned, the hotels concluded with a year round occupancy of 54.9 percent and an average length of stay of 4.6 nights -- the lowest recorded levels since statistics were produced in 1966.'' The figures are well below those recorded during Bermuda's peak periods in 1980 when hotels saw a year round average of 73.9 percent and an average length of stay of 5.1 nights.

The temperature guarantee scheme, advertised in major publications, offers visitors at participating hotels a 20 percent discount on their room rate for the day if the temperature drops below 68 degrees.

Yesterday, BHA vice-president Mr. Stephen Barker said the campaign had stirred up "considerable interest''.

"It certainly has gotten the message across to consumers that the weather is much milder than generally perceived. If we do not see a significant impact this winter we do expect that the advertising and the general media coverage will show an impact next year.

"It's true judging by the occupancy projections that it does not appear the campaign has had any significant impact so far but perhaps the figures might have been worse without it.'' Mr. Barker added that even with an economic recovery underway in the US, there would be no significant impact on 1993 bookings and most large hotels were concentrating on 1994 and 1995 for improvements.

"Major hotels depend to a great extent on conventions,'' he said. "They have not been made for 1993 and it's now too late to pick up any significant group bookings. Companies are laying off workers and generally trimming operations in an effort to cut costs. It's difficult to justify corporate travel to an upscale resort such as Bermuda.''