approaches, a new poll commissioned by The Royal Gazette suggests.

And for the first time, a majority of Bermuda's blacks voters say they oppose Independence, the poll reveals.

Meanwhile, the Progressive Labour Party's call for a boycott of the referendum continues to lose steam.

The poll, conducted between July 6 and July 11 by Urban & Associates, Inc. of Sharon, Massachusetts, found that opposition to Independence has grown since May, when the same company conducted a similar poll of Bermudian voters.

No further polls are planned by The Royal Gazette before the referendum is held.

Of electors who intended to vote, 68 percent said they would answer "no'' to the question: "Currently, are you in favour of Independence for Bermuda?'' Another 17 percent said they would vote "yes,'' while 15 percent said they were undecided.

The results reveal a slight shift in the last two months of undecided voters toward the "no'' camp. In May, 64 percent said they would vote "no,'' while 17 percent said they would vote "yes,'' and 19 percent were undecided.

There are still nearly three weeks before referendum day, but the results suggest Premier the Hon. Sir John Swan's hopes for an Independence mandate on August 15 will be dashed. Under the Independence Referendum Act, an Independence mandate would require not only that a majority of voters say "yes'' to Independence, but that 40 percent of the entire electorate vote "yes''. With more than 38,000 names on the voters' list, that means more than 15,000 "yes'' votes would be needed.

The biggest swing was among black voters, whom the poll says are now mostly opposed to Independence at this time.

Of black electors who intended to vote, 57 percent said they would say "no'' to Independence, while 24 percent would say "yes'' and 19 percent were undecided.

In the May survey, 49 percent of blacks said they planned to vote "no,'' while 26 percent said they would vote "yes,'' and 25 percent were undecided.

No significant change was seen among white voters, who were 87 percent opposed, five percent in favour, and eight percent undecided. The May survey found whites 88 percent opposed, three percent in favour, and nine percent undecided.

Just as the poll brings no good news for Sir John, it holds no encouragement for Opposition Leader Mr. Frederick Wade, who has called on his supporters to stay home on August 15.

A full 72 percent of registered voters surveyed said they intend to cast ballots on August 15, up from 69 percent in May. Only 11 percent said they would not vote, down from 16 percent in the last poll. Meanwhile, those who had not decided whether to vote edged up to 17 percent from 15 percent.

Another similar poll conducted by Urban & Associates in 1994 showed that 26 percent of Bermudians favoured Independence and 59 percent were opposed. Based on the three polls, support for Independence has declined steadily since then.

Other findings of the latest poll, based on telephone interviews with 358 registered voters, include: About seven in 10 voters feel the pros and cons of Independence should be explored at this time, but only 42 percent feel they have enough information to make a decision; More voters feel they have enough information to make a decision than in May, when only 36 percent answered "yes'' to that question; Economics were the biggest question mark among voters who wanted more information. Of those, 28 percent said they wanted to know more about currency and economics, while 20 percent wanted more information about every aspect, and 14 percent wanted to know more about costs; Black voters are more likely than others to feel the pros and cons of Independence should be explored at this time (77 percent), but less likely to feel they have enough information on the subject (35 percent); Independence is not a priority among Bermuda's youth. Only 14 percent of voters between the ages of 18 and 34 said they would vote "yes'' to Independence, while 18 percent of those age 35 to 44 would say "yes''. In May, 31 percent of those 35 to 44 said they would vote "yes'' to Independence. But the apparent large drop in support for Independence in that age group is within the poll's margin of error for results broken down by age.

Men are slightly less likely than women to feel that the pros and cons of Independence should be explored at this time, and are more likely to say they have enough information to make a decision.

The results of the poll are based on telephone interviews with 358 registered voters conducted between July 6 and July 11, as Government's Independence advertising campaign got under way and the party leaders continued their fight over the issue in the news media.

The overall results have a sampling error of plus or minus four to six percentage points, while the margin of error for race and gender breakdowns is five to eight percentage points and the margin of error for results broken down by age groups is nine to 14 percentage points.

Poll charts on Pages 2 & 3 INDEPENDENCE SURVEY