In the latest in a series of articles leading up to the Independence referendum on August 15, The Royal Gazette today looks at the major pros and cons of Independence -- and why intangible factors are playing such a role in the debate. Tomorrow: Electoral changes.

On August 15, Bermudians are to make what has been billed "the most important decision ever to be taken in the Island's history''.

For many, the question of Bermuda's Independence is an easy one to answer.

Some say a self-sufficient and self-governing country like Bermuda has no reason to remain tied to Britain's apron strings.

Others say Bermuda now has the best of both worlds and there is much to lose and little to gain by going Independent.

But for the undecided -- the latest poll published by The Royal Gazette said they represented 25 percent of the electorate -- the question is tougher.

Independence holds some attraction for nearly all Bermudians. Even its staunchest opponents generally say they oppose breaking ties with the United Kingdom "at this time''.

The Progressive Labour Party, while pro-Independence, says it does not trust the United Bermuda Party to take Bermuda there, arguing Government would further entrench an electoral system it sees as stacked in the UBP's favour.

In the community at large, many are concerned about the timing, as Bermuda emerges from recession and copes with return of the US Bases and new responsibilities at the Airport. There are those who want to wait until Hong Kong is returned to China in 1997 and see whether Bermudians are offered right of abode in the European Union.

Others have misgivings about the way the issue was sprung on the Country immediately after an election campaign in which it was not mentioned. Costs are another worry, as is the possible flight of capital and international companies which loathe instability. Some get a sense of security from attachment to the Crown and fear corruption and bad government if that is lost.

Just as the worst fears surrounding Independence can not be proven in advance, neither can many of the perceived benefits. To many, suggestions by Premier the Hon. Sir John Swan and others that Independence will help bring the races together is wishful thinking. And talk of heightened self-esteem is mystifying to those who have felt comfortable with Bermuda's British ties.

How does one separate fact from fancy and fear? The only time the effects of Independence will be known with certainty is after it happens.

The experiences of other countries are instructive. But pro-Independence Cabinet Ministers argue that the struggles of countries like Bahamas, which achieved Independence in 1973, can not be directly applied to Bermuda.

The Island is stronger financially than most Caribbean countries were when they took the leap, and Bermuda's public service is almost wholly comprised of local talent.

Independence critics like Bank of Bermuda chairman Mr. Eldon Trimingham have said that whether or not a split from Britain would lead to instability and/or corruption, there is a perception among those involved in international business that they are related. Contented dependent territory Cayman Islands is "cashing in'' on Bermuda's Independence debate, and suggest that when it comes to choosing an offshore centre, perception is reality.

Nobody has denied that Independence will cost more. The only question has been how much, with estimates starting at $1.3 million a year and rising sharply from there.

Proponents say the benefits are "intangible but incalculable''. Committee for the Independence of Bermuda chairman Mr. Walton Brown says the Island "is being stifled in its present constitutional status''.

Under the Constitution, Bermuda does not control its Police or armed forces, although it funds both fully. "Consequently, there is no accountability to Parliament.'' And with responsibility for external affairs in London, "we remain unable to chart our destiny to the extent possible in an interdependent world''. Bermuda cannot enter into international agreements which conflict with British interests, Mr. Brown said.

Independence would also remove "powerful symbols of colonial domination and English culture,'' he said. "The British flag, `God Save the Queen' and the Governor's plumed hat are outmoded and oppressive relics in a bi-racial, multicultural, ethnically diverse society.'' At a meeting in Paget in June, Finance Minister the Hon. David Saul -- who has done his best to remain publicly neutral on the Independence question -- drew no argument from pro-Independence Cabinet colleagues when he described the pros and cons of Bermuda going it alone as follows: On the down side, a small country like Bermuda would have to split up its limited number of top brains on the world stage, there would be apprehension, discontent and worry "for some time'', and "your taxes will go up slightly'', he said.

As for the positives, there was a psychological boost in nationhood, decision-making and international agreements would be made easier, and "your international image skyrockets'', he said.

The choice is yours.